Monday 22 December 2014

Happy New Year?

Thursday Mar 12, 2015:  It was actually flat till yesterday, but it looks like the Bank defences are starting to crumble against several billion dollars hedging them in like a Figure 4 wrestling hold of their own design...


The last week until the Quad Witch should show just how Futile their resistance is. lol

Thursday Mar 5, 2015: There are a couple weeks to go for expiration. We invested  about a billion in options a few weeks back. there was a rise around the FOMC Chit Chat with Janet and Congress. There was yesterday's close...


Things have flattened out. At the close...


What this tells me is that while we have invested a lot of risk capital, our time value hasn't been paying off... yet. The last two weeks to The Witch will have to settle out the premium still riding. We are flat hedged intentionally. Miss Banks and Wace will return shortly. He weighed 16 pounds 4 ounces already! She has been a little delayed getting back understandably... she had an episiotomy so Lil' Wace wasn't a Bullethead... He has a Big Head...


It's an hour or so later. You can see it is a weekly battle... but will pickup. Stay tuned...Meanwhile, we still work on bztchin' boomers inc. in the healthcare realm.

Monday Feb 23, 2015: Evening: The settlements are all exercised now. Here is where we stand going into the March Quadruple Witching month.


We can live with that. February saved us after a pretty lackluster start to the year in a virtually sideways market and where we were still biased for at least half the growth experienced in QE world. The market wasn't convinced; It biased to all previous growth attributed to QE, so basically from inflation only. Looked good on Paper, but flat in real terms. Better than expected February earnings woke them up. Lower fuel prices will now come into play, freeing up income to other sectors. Scott Adams even weighed in on the market. ;)


For the record, our strategy is to be on the other side of everybody's trades. We have a lot less overhead than the brokerage.

Friday Feb 20, 2015: Expiration Day. Here is where it sits now as I already have put on the options for next month... There will be some exercised positions from this month to be settled yet after Monday afternoon close.


This year has been a battle with volatility post QE as volatility has jumped to an over-corrected state. We have adjusted for the new normal and rode it out, but going forward things will be more subdued until the banks realize that there is no way to beat us without beating themselves up even worse, or simply resorting to fraud and theft. We will see.


Thurs Evening, Feb 12, 2015: Another rough week with Russia and the Ukraine, smattered with Greek instability. The Greek electorate  has leaned towards defaulting their bond debt, so they are committing fiscal suicide. The Euro community will QE it away dragging the whole mess down.


We have a week to go for Feb Expiry. Perhaps we can roll in advance if there is a volatility spike between now and then as there sometimes is, but better than forecast earnings for majors like AAPL could foretell a break out of the flat doldrums we have had since the beginning of the year.

VIX Expiry comes before normal monthly expiration this cycle. It will be at the next Tuesday Close.

Thurs Evening, Feb 5, 2015: Miss Banks is preggers, so I'll fill in... We really haven't had much for up days. The Bear sides of the hedges are getting crowded, so any up day moves our bottom line like it is on steroids. There will be a massive settlement in our favour in a couple weeks consequently I suppose, but until then it is nail biting time.


I cleared off a lot of the previous settled expiration holdings, but have billions more I could clean off the slate and up our liquidity with. I have ignored it as designed. We wanted to build it to minimize trades. We have blown only about $561 K in commissions so far this year which is on target that way.

I have been busy anyways with my biotech startup. A 1% reduction in chronic disease would have an economic benefit worth about $1 trillion, or $500 billion 2006 US Dollars. This has the ability to reduce chronic disease by way more than that, so understandably it deserves a lot more attention. We are still struggling to make a billion so far this year here.

Lil' Wace may still be born with a diamond encrusted platinum spoon in his mouth... We'll have to see in a couple weeks. We bagged a free $110 million from a reverse 10:1 split on a NASDAQ ETF position we put on last year, held the negative exercise, and it didn't show up until it was liquidated this year. That little bump helped and Wace won't have to get hand me downs.

Mon, Jan 26, 2015:We have been away for a while. Getting back, I see that we took a big hit at expiration, below S+P 2000, and have since recovered. It's about a half hour until the close.


This what it looked like the Monday after expiry a week ago... ugly. Time heals most wounds in hedge world.


We have rebounded over half a billion dollars from that ditch by rebalancing to the new high volatility reality. We did that by cashing out assignments on our options and rolling into February positions. We want to profit from the excessive theta that high volatility generates on options when it relaxes and/or the option on the underlying expires, be it in or out of the money. Like the heading says, the happiness has been questionable this year so far. Earnings season only exacerbates that with all the dividend bagging craziness. March ES sits at about 2049.




Fri Jan 9, 2015: There is One Week left to go in the fiscal month. At Lunchtime, the market is back down moderately with ES bobbling around 2040...


While showing positive numbers for the year, we still have a relatively bad fiscal  month. This is due to the large drop at the end of the previous year during last Wednesday afternoon, New Year's Eve, as many funds took a large amount off the table. We ended down about $250 million in Blue Column 1. Today there were some moderately bad numbers, and there was a hostage crisis in Paris. VVIX is at 101.74 pointing to the Hedger's Nemesis, Increasing Volatility, as the culprit. So I reckon we are up only $200 million since New Year's Eve, an awful performance for us. 6:30 pm approaches... Along with Earnings Week next week... ES dropped to 2033.50






Thurs Jan 8, 2015: A rally appears to be underway. After overnight and then the "Up" opening, it rose for a solid hour...


During the morning and afternoon, it started to lose some steam affording us an opportunity to reinvest some cash to rebalance hedges, although we are weighted decidedly Bullish. So far this year, Volatility has returned to the Markets reaffirming our assertion that QE kept it artificially low, and enabled us to ride it like a rented mule. At 1 PM EST,


Looking above on the Blue Line, the numbers are Respectively P/L from Opening Positions, Daily Profit/Loss, and Buying Power Effect of Open Positions. After the Close at 8 PM,


We are back into the Green from Opening our positions after a decidedly bad month with two distinct dips. S+P Futures (ES) are presently in the 2053 range. There is a week left to go until Option Expiration this month. It is getting harder to make a buck in the hedge business as the market feels out this new Post QE reality, and the wheels fall off in the oil business.

Weds Jan 7, 2015: The Boss Stale Dated that last post! I have been on the mend for nearly a week!



We are still under water. It has been a Horrific Week! The S+P went into the 1900's! Now it is only 2016 ES Futures! We have made Zero Trades this year! The Boss tried to explain why I fell ill. He says RoundUp Weedkiller is in everything we eat now, and there is No Cure! Well, unless you believe that silly thing he is working on. He also fancies himself an Artiste of sorts... He contacted Mr. Brainwash with his latest Creation!


I have an idea! Let's use the Banks Phone! Banksy must be out there Somewhere!


It went to message... "Brother Dearest... It's me, Robin <3 xoxo as if you didn't KNOW! Teehehehe! Mom says pickup your CD's or they all go to the Thrift... and Call Me!" <flush!> That should get a response...


It is 20 minutes to go until the close. The day was wildly volatile, indicative of a final bottom possibly to this Awful Week. VVIX remains around 109. but has been steadily decreasing all day. ES mafe 2017.5 as of now. It made 2024 earlier. Let's wait for the Closing Bell.


SPX settled at about 2025.90. By 7:30 PM... ES 2021.50 , and...




Fri Jan 2 2014: Happy New Year. At 6:30 AM EST, it is The Boss, and here is the picture... New years Eve we lost about 100 million, but we got it back. There was a large selloff for tax purposes of hedge funds. Today and next week they will selectively buy it all back and then some.


I have been working over the break from medical school/engineering, and trying to heal what ails Miss Banks. I will have to invent a cure because one does not exist yet. Well, neither did this 380% hedge fund. Miss Banks thinks I have Lost my Marbles! Well, in honour of her, here is my temporary logo... comprised of MIT, UBC, and the soon to be Defunct MON logos...

I missed the New Year's Close because I was at the bank. They were all too happy to help me, given my history, and no personal guarantee necessary! Sorry, this IPO is cancelled.  I guess they want some of my business back. :) At 9 AM, things are picking up... Banksy is snoring, and on the mend.


After the opening, the options are kicking in.


But the selloff continued, while Volatility relaxed. Miss Banks stands vindicated with her prescience. I made her some Chicken Soup, with allegedly Organic Chicken... At 7:23 PM...


It is still moving though with our direct shorts after hours.



Weds Dec 31 2014: It is the last day of the year. It is The Boss here.... Miss Banks is sick as a dog from a fast food GMO binge with my sister and is still "Sittin' on tha Toilet!" The audio is atrocious coming out of there! It is 10:30 EST.


Perhaps she will understand my fascination with BioTech these days now. I have a cure for that one. (adjusts gas mask) No sulfur deficiency there yet though.... give her a couple more hours... lol. I was gonna dump her, but kinda feel sorry fo' da po' bztch now....


Let's look at how Monsanto (MON) is faring these days. It went from a July 7, 2010 low of 44.61 to 128.79 and now 121.15. There will be a short storm coming on demonstrably one of perhaps the most evil corporations to ever exist. After all, they hid PCB's, Dioxins, Several Superfund Sites, Agent Orange, and now RoundUp/GMO Ready Death. Miss Banks is just another puny death about to happen at their hands, but I take it as a Challenge now. I watched 6 friends die of brain cancer this year alone, and all traced to MON Products. I also have some secret information on their clandestine human toxicity testing from the 40's, 50's, 60's, and 70's. You will see.

This also the end of the Calendar Year. There will be a lot of Tax Adjusting going on to split liquidations over two Calendar Years and minimize Capital Gains. Indeed, I am headed out to do some myself.


Tues Dec 30, 2014: The bell opening, rung by Art Cashin to mark 50 Years service at the NYSE, is flat...


Somebody please tell the Boss that this is a stable career like Art Cashin has. Just because he cured cancer today doesn't mean that the next person falling off the turnip truck won't do the same thing tomorrow, and he will wind up in a barrel! Think of little Wace!!! Oh dear! And Wace just punted my Kidney! I guess it is handy to have somebody involved in Healthcare in the Family... but think of the long term ramifications!? Ow! Wace has Hyperactivity issues too. It's like he is trying to bust out like that Alien movie! <Frapppp!> Oh, Wace, cut that out! The little bugger is taking advantage of that extra helping of Beans I had last night...

Speaking of beans, now the S+P is jumping around like a mexican jumping bean, but we are still flat. Maybe I am hedged too well. We have seen that before like back in August where we stayed flat until Expiration, and we got a huge positive settlement as all the options expired worthless from being way overvalued from Volatility. We were short all of those, and the greeks went to zero or 1 (delta), so we walked away with an enormous Windfall. Free Money! After showing the Boss, he put me in charge of the account. See "Not Quite Expired Yet!!!" after we went from 600 million to over ten times that year to date. I am a little "Hedge Hog." Teeehehehe!

It is 2 hours after the Close, so the number isn't right. I went town with the Boss' Sister, and we talked about how silly the Boss was about all this multibillion Pharmacrap. She works for Health Canada, or as we all know it, Monsanto. We ate buckets of geneticall modified weed free delicacies, and talked about all the people we knew who died young this week. Better them than us! Teeehehehe!


It looks like things are flat still. Oh well, they can pay me later. Options expire in 17 days, and then they all go to zero or Delta 1. They'll rue the day. xoxo <3 R.


Mon Dec 29, 2014: It was a rough Open after a wild Sunday Night on Futures, but it is at 2087 right now...


VIX climbed back over 16 at the open but subsided to 15.36 by 10:15 AM. I found out what The Boss has been busy doing. He is trying to get his Biotechnical Pharmaceutical startup off the ground, but it has been a tough slog. You cannot Crowd Source medical pursuits. He claims it is an instant Arthritis Cure. Really! Celebrex that doesn't work alone is $1 billion a quarter! I protested that that is only revenues but he claims THAT is why My Division is puny potatos comparatively! :( I am $1.5 B a quarter, cold hard cash, and damn good steamy comfy sex, but he thinks he has Celebrex clobbered! Plus it is being replaced by those risky biologic treatments daily! His thing has NO side effects! <sob!> I fret that He is going to dump me!!!

It was flatter than piss on a plate all day. Santa Claus and his Rally must be whacked out on Triptophane from a Turkey Overdose.


I want in on that pharmaceutical IPO. Am I an insider? xoxo <3 R.


Fri Dec 26. 2014: The Open


Later at Lunch...


Light volume I guess. Sony released and showed The Interview. Reviews are that it sucked, but nothing like plumping up that Christmas Turkey with a little free publicity. I can see Kim Jong Un's beef with the thing now... EVERYBody can! It was an awful movie!! Denizens sat through it as a patriotic duty, else they would have all left the steaming pile alone early. Many were left thinking God Bless America... Sony can go to Hell!

Meanwhile Obama carded 73! It was the other 9 holes where the wheels fell off; that score remains a State secret. The Secret Service detail would only bust out laughing when queried if the CiC had indeed broken 200!!! Rumour has it the GiC looked pooped after reportedly digging a divot from 10 to 18. He couldn't even lift a Pen, and He let the storied Phone go to Message. He drove Choom Force #1 straight into the Clubhouse and left in a huff. Owwch! Here is the Closing Bell... it will settle more though...


I used available dollars all day patching and balancing our hedges using options. After Hours they do not move after the Closing and Opening Bells. Thusly, we get strange balances over night, holidays, and the weekend versus direct held positions. All in a day's work for the astute hedger I suppose. ES Futures closed a half hour ago, and here is what we have.


There was a large clawback after 9 PM EST, but again options are closed, so we will get it back Monday. See you then! xoxo <3 R.



Weds Dec 24, 2014: It is a shortened trading day where crude oil is all the buzz; How low can it go as if that is a bad thing. Futures show $55 +/- a buck like they have so far this week. The settlement price is hard on the corporate planners though. Noting the date, the reindeer don't give a rat's patootie.

So the shortened day was great up until the bell where SPX finished 2081.88 Our hedge held up... Futures dove to 2078 after hours though...


I hope you have a Merry Christmas. We are having Whirled Peas for supper. My Favorite!!! xoxo <3 R.


Tues Dec 23, 2014: Well it started down a bit...
 

The Community Riot Organizer In Chief got another cop kill notch last night in Florida while at the 19th Hole in Hawaii. Hope and Change is kicking ass with Pen and Phone halfway round the world. Big Bird DeBlasio is about to check into psych. Republican brats all over are making up Bumper Stickers "Who d'ya wanna kill? When?" with bright Hammer and Sickle motif to slap on their Union Teacher's bumpers all night long before phoning the cops on them. Splendid! I guess they have learned their lessons well how to Organize against authority from the Top.

At 11 AM with the AWOL Commander peeling Pineapples, home sales numbers suck. We liquidated a bunch of extra positions to  get back towards sanity...


We got an adjustment for a reverse 10:1 split on one underlying security, JNUG, that we had shorted for ages and held. Sony clarifies that "The Interview" release is just delayed. They will get tight with The Cops to release it in a couple months instead. Of course in the last week liberals like those in Hollywood have got in tighter than ever with police "racist mofos" Brothers all over America from New York to Florida between organizing cop hating race riots Police Love Ins.

Low oil prices are fueling a boom. Finally some good news. Everything was negative on the news channels. I guess they are trying to ruin Christmas. Well, we simply won't let them! We are hedged in as best as we can for now. Three weeks and change to expiration. The Short Selling Grinch News Machine will fail we surmise. Do we care if it's one nation under godawful? Why is it a concern all of a sudden? I can have a smashing New Years where we can all defenestrate Boxing Week Special TV's from the Penthouse! Smashing! Literally! Look out below!

Sony has now decided to release the Interview anyways. A Liberal gutsy calculus; Ripping face off of a Mentally unstable nuclear armed dictator OR Sit here and face the Music from the Cops and the Ha><0rs? Wait a sec... Those are ALL about equally bad and now they all happen! Math wasn't their strong suit. Sony feels it hasn't got much left to live for anyways.

By 9 PM...


...as we Brace for a Jolly Sony Christmas.

Mon Dec 22, 2014: The last Quad witch of the year is behind us and the settlement is today. An early snapshot at 7 AM on Wall Street looked like this, but of course we have many option positions that will light up in 2.5 hours...


The real question is will we have a mixed market now that inflationary monetary policy is over. The Fed printed Bull Market is now gone. We have President Ebola ignoring the 1,400 cases the CDC is hiding from people, and golfing in Hawaii to make things look legit. Community Riot Organizers have NYPD Blood on their hands they can simply smear off onto the White House carpet. China has bravely taken on the greased turd that is Russia by backstopping the Ruble. Let's see how that goes...

Of course there is that silly story about the high school boy who gained $72 million trading securities. In the hedge world, we know this happens all the time, but he lied and the magazine reporting was left with egg on their face. All the ones asking me for interviews never make it past the SEC. We have an agreement; I don't tell how, especially to a reporter, and they leave me alone! <3 Oddly, a child with excruciating leverage would not pass that muster, but the reporting standards of New Yorker are that lax.

They also thump the tub for President Ebola I suppose, ignoring the fact that he was born out back of a whore house in Hawaii before it was a state. Apparently, American Voters are that stupid say President Ebola's Top Advisor(s) running the country. It will be just like some random idiot kiddie porn bastard child grew up to be President or something. This will be our Arbitration Opportunity going forward, elevating time value to excruciating levels as the legendary dumbasses slowly find out what we have known all along, the cranial back package of disbelief constipation relieves in their collective drawers, and our bank accounts, all at once. What do you think the chances are that the full movie of Ebola's Conception comes out before he leaves office? Does that look like a photographer's drop curtain being used as a dress here in 1953, 61 years ago as Ebola really looks forward to his 61st birthday? She appears to like hiding his stretch marks in all the reams of other newer pictures. At the Open,


I'm sorry, but I have been busy taking advantage of the morning shakeup putting on hedges I haven't used for months to make it interesting. It is about a quarter past 10 AM EST, and I hedged all our excess cash. Now I can celebrate Christmas unless we get more when the other exercised options get put to us as the day progresses. As we have seen in the past, that sometimes works out to be a substantial sum.


Back to the Big Picture. Now that Republicans ought to know the standard blackmail fare the Democrats had on Candidate Ebola, will they show they have a pair, or will it be the usual mono gonad-ed response? I am a Libertarian but have known since before he ran when I was a Girl Guide in high school, and it was all the rage of rumours we bandied about at sleep overs. "Don't have sex in movies before you are 12 or you could have a Presidential Bastard, be shacked up with some exchange student from Kenya in a botched coverup, and be killed by the CIA!" Every British girl knew that... At Lunch, the weight of problems turns the day into a grind.


The Riot Organizer In Chief has put his "Who do we wanna Kill?... When do we wanna kill 'em?" bullhorn down to putt. Everything is all Candy Canes and Sugarplums now in serene bullet proof limo processions. The Free Obama Phone and golf Cart hawkers have become oddly silent as crude languishes in the 50's, and President Ebola shatters Bush's Worst Approval Ratings. The Faithful, still blissfully ignorant, blame Bush for not setting it lower. Guffaw!!! Not a creature is stirring... Not even a DemocRAT! And it is another 3 days before that rotund sled pilot loads up with coal to bomb the lot of the bastards!

Rush Limbaugh was snuggled... Assured in his bed... He'd told you a Reindeer'd, Crap on Barack's Head!!! Sarah was up near Wasilla, Alaska... The Cop Killer In Chief was a Five Star Disasta'! "Barack is not a smart fella', ya know... So again, all'a ya dumbasses, 'I told you so!'" DemocRATs feverishly hung nooses all over... A huge Race Baiting Hoax would just let them Start Over!

I napped. I had other thimgs to do. It closed and I snapped it at 9 Eastern...


Monday 22 September 2014

Oh, Deer!

Friday, Dec 19, 2014: The Quad Witch is upon us. ESZ4 Futures and SPX will converge today. We have scads of options expiring. It is the quarterly trainwreck, and the end of the fiscal year. We have seen ES gain 60 handles in a couple days. It has come back into line from where it was oversold, but now maximum pain theory takes over to balance the equity options boards.

Still, we almost made $6 Billion so far this year. Perhaps you can do better... Just try! Teehehehe! For the record, I am the all time world record holder now that I have finally de-Throned the Boss... and you likely have a snowball's chance in Hell of beating me, but there is Faint Hope. This was not a lucky one shot deal though. It took years to find a successful repeatable hedge strategy, and if you scroll down you will see how we built it, one month at a time. As for being fake, it actually appeared to sway the markets; The idea is more powerful than cash itself, also an idea. As always, the data feeds have been real. So there!


The Open is bland and starts to swing negative. Mid morning there is news filler; The US will make a measured appropriate response to North Korea's Sony Hack. These days, they actually DO piss on tinpot dictators when they are on fire. North Korea has nukes, so I suppose they will drink an extra "measured" beer. Notable Hollywood tiger Paramount pulled its re-release of Team America out of sympathetic terror. All kinds of outta work actors faked 1st Amendment indignation. Samuel Jackson threatened to sing and Al Sharpton got script approval for all Sony shzt. It's a flat Witch and it looks like they balanced it already overnight.

With only 15 minutes left, the SPX and ES have finally converged within a dollar. Oddly, even with a day ending rally, Volatility proxies like XIV are flat, and have been for a couple wild days where they really don't reflect the leaps in the S+P 500. I spent the day rolling forward to January and adjusting to a more neutral weight. We will be exercised on some index options and will have to wait 72 hours for the banks to reluctantly settle with us. But overall, we were spot on when we assumed they had already baked in the Quad Witch. A relatively flat day with an S+P settlement around 2075. Look for heavy action Sunday and Monday if anything is out of sorts with their chosen settlement numbers.


So I blew $200 MM on my Bottom Line with the Re-Balance. We think it will be a better balance going forward into 2015. I sprinkled it on the bear side of our holdings as we were a little longish weighted last quarter. Luckily, it worked in the end, but it could have been a lot better if we bagged October and the recent dip as well. I see after hours the numbers are still wild. It isn't over yet.


It even goes above 6 billion YTD as they are still fudging their books in the back rooms. By 9 Eastern, they grabbed Xmas money back. That is the harsh reality of Witching.


To be fair, I guess we beat them like a rented mule all year long. Merry Xmas, Crooks! I will ensure you Have a Crappy New Year! ;) xoxo <3 R.

Thurs Dec 18, 2014: It is another wildlife day here. There is nothing like a heart warming cross species love story wildlife video to get us in the mood for a heart ripping Pre-Quad Witch Market Day. Or not. I don't know. It seemed on theme and on topic. Deer's Mother gets poached or hit by a truck, and Great Dane adopts orphan. Only trouble is Wall Street is myocardially challenged... Check the pulse below...


CL, WTI Oil at NYMEX and CME, is in the 58.50 range. That has to hurt producers who have mortgaged their souls to buy refining capacity for heavy varieties. That is OK... The consumer will have to pick it up. Banks and Oil Co's look out for each other kind of out of necessity. That isn't to say there won't be a glut on Calgary Real Estate before the dust settles. We've done that drill before, and a spanking is well overdue after everybody got greedy and killed all those Ft Mac plants. Whatever will the Banks do? "They'll raise Interest Rates till they bleed!" opines the Boss, who actually lived through it the other times when they needed a smackdown. Here is the Open...


The Fiscal solstice is upon us tomorrow. The days start to get longer, and that is definitely a good thing here. I miss the islands, and while I thought they had it tough in late fall/winter at 25, this is almost Arctic! It is only 2.8 C outside! Brrrr! After Christmas, it will get frighteningly cold; -10! I may die. Of course, slightly before that, I will flit off to the Carribean. Flitting is always an option when faced with an Ice Age. I look at all the deals for people flitting away and the sweet spot appears to be near the end of January on Flighthub.ca




Weds Dec 17, 2014: Let's forget that awful opening! After the FOMC at 2 PM, things are going well. The counters of beans must have liked it.


Rick Santelli is somewhat perplexed, which is perplexing in itself from the Bond corner. This is a sure sign nobody knows what the hell the Fed is trying to accomplish, and the markets love it. Futures are bandying about 2000, and about a half past 2, will the wheels fall off again? The Deer market remains as volatile as ever since the last Witch in September. The Pundits are the only ones with no shortage of Bull here.

At 2:30, Janet speaketh. Initially, they do not liketh it. Things sucketh. This prompts the Gang to Speculateth a round of easing. Then there waseth a rally to endeth. By 8 PM...


It was Medieval. All that pre-VIX Expiry pressure released at once in a virtual flood of fiscal diarrhea.  Colon-ative Easing so to Speaketh. Something evil was obviously going on under the hood in the middle. And Janet gave it a colonic. But you see how that went? A completely awful quarter with a mixed middle until this VIX Expiration, then the FOMC Meeting immediately after it where all evils are miraculously healed. We are still oversold in the Big Picture like we said a week or more ago. Will it continue the rally to the New Year? After all, ES almost made 2080 and it is holding around 2008 now. xoxo <3 R.


Tues Dec 16, 2014: It is an FOMC Day; The Fed is meeting to wring hands over policy, and Interest Rates are on everyone's mind. The Russian Rouble has had a rout overnight as their central bank raised the interest rate to 17%. As lunch approaches, we have reached the zero line in this expiry week, with Dec VIX Expiration looming at the close today. At 10:50


As usual, the wheels fell off a couple hours later by 1 PM.


It got uglier at the close and beyond for the worst VIX expiration in memory. It is not over until the SOQ tomorrow at the open.


It was that bad, leading to a record for us on the downside. We will have to see how the morning Settlement goes before we can book it though. xoxo <3 R.


Mon Dec 15, 2014: I frittered the day away, but the Close is up to start expiration week.


Oil took another hit. On CNBC, an airline CEO wouldn't say that he was hedged, and that is the downside of covering his fuel cost risk; It could always decrease in price after years of only increasing. Naturally, that is why they can't pass the alleged savings on to the ticket holders now. They were smoothing that cost out all this time. For the record, oil took a 4% hit today, putting a damper on any market recovery.

So we dodged a bullet, only having to get rid of ugly French lemony sports cars, keeping the Italian and German ones, plus the British fleet for style. A girl has to belt tighten in these tough times. The BlueTec's are easier on gas, but I suppose all the V12's can come out now that they can't even give fuel away!!!! <throws driving scarf over shoulder in a sassy manner> <3 xoxo R.


Fri Dec 12, 2014: The day is off to a good start.


Later, Oil is having a credit crunch. By mid day, CLH5 Futures for next March are under $60. They weren't banking on that. We will have to put all those Canadfian Expansion plans on hold, not to mention all that $80 financed Bakken Shale stuff. There is blood on the carpet. Towards the end of a painful lunch,


Much has been said how us hedge funds will feel the squeeze. Well, Duh! Things haven't exactly been peachy these past few days when there is a rip, followed by a seemingly un-hedgeable dip. The underlying articles which I can't disclose simply cannot keep up with the wild VVIX 138.94 whipsaw volatility, throwing the balance out of whack. In the end it will come back, but it is a rough ride. And there is a 16.78 split from Dec to Mar CL Futures. The charts seem broken, always showing trouble under the hood in Bank World, albeit in a left handed way. Here is how the service industries are in a triple tizzy over it.

Now they say we are all buying protection, but what about when the well is dry? Dial up the bank and they put you on hold. They are dealing with "Quantitative Uneasing" in the best way they know how... Hide! We have an hour to go, and it is coming off a few hours of buck and suck.


Then there was a horrific nose dive to the Close. Note these are Hedged; It would have been time to defenestrate ourselves if we weren't!


At least we are still up some 5.27T for the year, but losses are Losses. Oh My! These are sad days in Hedge Corners, County of Upper Shit Creek, and our paddle is Missing! This may make a dent in the sports car budget with VIX Expiration on Tuesday. We may have to postpone the monthly Euro Coupe Demo Derby. Times are almost tough! xoxo <3 R.

Thurs Dec 11, 2014: Here we go with an up open... We're back!


An hour later, it only gets better...


At lunch time, still rising, but the fire is out for now... We have recouped some of this week's corrective action.


Now the close, and the wheels have fallen off again... You win some, you lose some.


For the record, we are used to Winning... A Lot! But I see after hours it looks like a fine Roll Day for those who must roll their futures positions forward before expiration at high volatility with VVIX over 132. <3 xo R.

Weds Dec 10, 2014: Well I slept in. So sue me. After all, I am back out west again. Jane Wells Land. We're more casual here. Hang Loose!


It seems to be a bifurcated market. Big dip followed by buyers coming in, and still post QE. There is obviously faith in the underlying picture; Of course it could be a case of least ugly girl left at the last dance. There isn't much there for the hopeful hangers on as the wheels fall off in the 2042 ES range. It is stuck in a rut. With 40 minutes to go, obviously a hard downward bias...


And the ugly close... Perhaps a good time to get bargains.



Tues Dec 9,3014:  Slow start... after a continued downslide in the S+P... It is actually bouncing about 5 million from 1 to 6 million up. Our hedge, still loaded down from being exercised last expiration, is still up.


As time rolls on through the AM, it is rough inside trading. And we are still holding the zero line nearly an hour in. We rebalanced the NASDAQ hedge as it is getting out of sorts, ie: Losing...


Now I hear you: "Robin, you 6'8" Red Headed Hermaphrodite skank whore F'n Engineer! Those numbers are so big they have no relation to reality!" Well, maybe not for YOU, but I can take a Big One AND crush it down to a quivering wet sloppy gelatinous mess too! I'm VERY flexible that way! <3 xoxo Then at about 1130, 


Then we rebalanced an underperforming S+P 500 Hedge. It ticked us positive cash balance reducing our short side hopefully in a dip region.


After lunch, lil' Wace is kicking again. Sometime in March-late April... then we will be a mother son hedge team. I just know it's a boy. Mothers can tell, and they all say I am a mother. Teehehehe! <3 xoxo The markets are rising... SPX has rebounded to 2053.90 as the Quad Witch approaches in 10 days, even with that small bit left to expiration. I smell a roll coming up for those who play the futures-index hedge game.


We used some dry powder to hedge off our Junior Gold Miners where volatility rules the roost... Of course it's a wash putting on the options to balance on the zero line with delta way out of whack. It will return to 1 at expiration. We are weighted for a Deer Market which is apparently like a bull, only it is a buck and on the doe! <3 xxxo Teehehehe! After 2,


At 5:50, we are wobbling on a plateau from the post lunch climb after hedging more to balance out our exposure to volatility. We are still slightly bullish overall from this one day and night correction to begin the week....


Then the close took some $26 M back. Of course the options don't update after hours though, and that is what we spent money on... Hedging with options. We will see if we can recoup tomorrow. The markets are like a soap opera that never ends that way. <3 xo R.



Fri Dec 5, 2014: Well, we didn't win the plane, but I had fun with all those astronauts anyways. and the money kept going too.


It seems we got a little overextended but we have an understanding with those nice gentlemen at the bank; I won't tell their wives about those weekends on Jekyll Island, and they let it slide too! Teehehehe!

It is also a Quadruple Witching month for option expiration, always good for fireworks in financial circles. It happens on the equinoxes and solstices, and with all types of options and futures expiring simultaneously, it is a forced balance. This month. even with all the post QE relaxing in valuations, I would say the markets are still quite oversold. A move to balance that would be in order in my opinion, and because it is the quad witch, that move is all the more likely.



Thurs Nov 6: I have been busy but not here. I had to get a qualifying bid in on the aircraft, and line up inspection, and pickup at Edwards Armstrong Flight Research Center in California. That is only if we win, but I had to fill out an end user agreement. The Boss already did the anal probe. On THEM, not him! Teehehehe! At 9:45 it was a yawner open.


 At around 11, it wasn't much different.


Anyways, I hope we win the plane. I am saving the $10K Bid Deposit  interest until the 12th although they have our credit card info. That's only fair. We have THEIRS!

At 4:15 or so, I had nodded off... This is what I woke to... and it is still rising! Oh, Boss! <3 Teehehe...





Weds Nov 5, 2014: The Boss already has me busy at 8 AM. He wants to buy an airplane to look for oil! He is so silly...


It is at a government junk auction. Why do that when we can cut to the chase? <pout!> Look at that Rolls. The Red Interior is so tacky I want to bag it if only to use at our next Bankers' Demo Derby... It also won't show the blood on the carpet! Teehehehe...


We were up late last night working on his screenplay. He has a kickstarter.com Movie with a $100M Budget. He says it is all about his biological research, and he calls it "Hammer Of The Dog." I don't know what made me more tired; The Laughing, The Crying, The Sex, or the writing, but I am a little slow this AM before coffee. BRB

Sippy sippy time! <Slurrrrp!>Ahhhh! Delightful! <tosses hair> You like that? Call Vogue! The Boss likes Dogman's spots on Bunny's show. He says he can feel for him. I wonder what he means by that? Anyways here is the plot. The Boss has determined everybody on earth is dying from hosting an alien parasite species. He wants to save the world, but nobody will pay attention. He turns to Hollywood in a last ditch effort to get the word and the cure out. He says, "If you really wanna fzck things up, get Hollywood to write about it!" That is one of The Boss' classified papers I was working on about things faster than "c". Sorry Albert! The Boss has determined that a fzckup travels around the world 8 times while "c" barely makes 7 circuits! "People generally can't count their ballz twice an' get the same number, but they will describe the questionable fzckz of a Hollywood movie in detail Ad Nauseum to anybody an' everybody! Thus you score a bullseye on several targets with the same shot!" So we lose a secret! And some Secret! Oy! There are other things, but the Boss melted down the keys on them by shipping them to himself in Timbuktu and marking the checkbox "Hold for Pickup!" The Boss wants Tarantino to produce and direct. Good Luck on that, but having been involved with the script, I can see why. 15 minutes before opening in New York...


He wants to have Ron Howard on board too. Boss, those guys are out of our budget! The Boss figures they would do it Pro Bono. AFAIK, the Boss is the only Pro Bone I Know! Teehehehe! <3

Casting is tentatively Tom Cruise and Jody Foster for us. That makes sense. Ron Howard and Jodie have done space, and let me tell you this is out there! Tom Cruise may turn it down as his Risky Business Top Gun Mission Impossible type casting days are over. Well, The Boss is All of the Above rolled into one on this one, and maybe Valkyrie too. Ronny may not like our tag line; "Failure IS an option!" Quentin may say, "It's all BAD! Where do I sign up?" Teehehehe! At the 11 O'Clock Timeframe after an ugly opening,


I see that Hypnotists like to friend the Boss on his FB. Interestingly they come into our plot as well, but not in a very nice way, and always on the periphery. You'll see. The Time Travel implications will leave you scratching both your heads and nether regions! Oh My! Teehehehe!

I had a nap and woke up to try and screenshot our hedge fund. Our kickstarter account has been redacted! I have a post-it[TM] note on-screen here in the corner... it is from the Boss... "I'm sorry Miss Banks... All that money an' movie stars an' biomedical spacecraft secrets an' shzt attracted such a large cut of the undesirables, we will be Late tonight after cuffing an' stuffing them where they want us. You KNOW We Always Get Them Where They Want Us! [TM] I will put slightly less bait on the hook next time, but I was right... The Bigger Ones took the bait of having all those nibblers there in one gulp. I'll pick up more K-Y at the pharm... Although your ideas with the old Bacon Grease will save us a bundle... <3, Dr.* M. xo

PS: You want Cigarettes, coffee filters, nude lipstick, extra spear gun refills, maternity wet suit, and a quiver on the way home? I grabbed it off the fridge... Txt me if u can think of anything else... <3"

<sigh!> He is so thoughtful. That is why I love him so! R. xo <3



Tues Nov 4, 2014: Last night when I checked the Monday EOD we were still up about 30 M. We opened down though. The hedging yesterday is generating 2:1 income now, but we ran out of cash before we could balance. Still, better than nothing...


We are still carrying a huge exercised position from October Option Expiration. This is mostly in this Canadian Account, where options on S+P Futures products are not allowed. My Americas account is doing swimmingly well, but I am afraid that is classified. Canadians will have to suffer, and even though the Boss' Grandfather poured Half the Gold alleged to be in Fort Knox when he was chief metallurgist for Hollinger in Timmins, Ontario. Ungrateful bastards! His father was also at Camp X but nobody knows about that.





Mon, Nov 3, 2014: The Boss flew in for the Weekend. His arms were a little tired, but the rest was firing on all cylinders! (; <3


I found out something I did not know. The Boss only wanted to be a surveyor and an astronaut, like all the other little kids. He was disqualified on the eve of his graduation because he steadfastly pursued that goal. Many have tried, and many have died. May God rest their tortured souls.


He failed Economics twice. Oddly, the same answers to those tests would garner the impossible mark of 101% today. Read 'em and weep as the Boss told me when we played Strip Poker again all weakend... Our sides were sore from... Laughing! Yes, that's the ticket! (; <3


The Boss wanted to do a touch and go in Mississippi to pick up his new guitar but that was not allowed. The United States has become One Nation over God these days. "Fzck' 'em! They can Go To Hell!" mike said. That is somewhat frightening because not only is He a Hell of An Engineer, but an Engineer of Hell! Teeehehe!

The shipping is almost as much as the guitar is worth with Customs etc. I coerced him to set up shop here because we are a Free Port. He also dabbles in Finance but those medical school courses he is taking are hurting him. We decided we just have to start our own hospital here too. The Boss plays like an Angel... and alternately like a Hells Angel. He thinks he sucks though. I think he is dreamy. <sigh!> After Lunch...


At the 3 PM EDT Timeframe, we spent our excess cash up hedging our positions as best we could... We obviously had long side exposure as the S+P dipped dramatically. ES Futures gave up 9 handles in less than a couple hours. The dip buyers are coming in again though... after peaking at a new high of 2019.25


I am sorry but we were in meetings for the rest of the day. At 2 AM, I checked the EOD...

Oh Dear! That was on our backup Moonshot server. I will up date it when I am at the backup location next time. <3 R.





Thurs Oct 30: Now where were we?


It looks bad. I can make it back. I was at the Federal Open Market Committee Meetings. I typed it! On *somebody's* Lap Top! Teehehe! Still we are doing much better than October Expiration. I have been adding to our hedge to flatline it more. Who knows where it all is going! The Boys at the Fed and the Girls have no idea! I took BOTH sides! Teeehehehehe! You know how I could tell the women like girls too? Jekyll Island is all Tongue and Groove Construction!!! <3

The Boss is all full of Hot Air about cumming here. I sure hope so. Our hopes have been dashed before with his neighbours almost poisoning him!









Tues, Oct 28, 2014: I am sorry but I have been busy with the Federal Reserve and Janet in meetings all weekend. <Sigh!> How are we doing? I assume President Ebola would like to know... Like all the other politicians, with the possible exception of that cute Canadian Economist Rt. Hon. <3 Steven Harper. he will have to suffah...


Sent on My Blackberry... The stupidest phone EVAH! because it has no idea where I am at! Teehehehe! Ta ta! R. <3 xoxo

Thurs, Oct 23, 2014: I am kind of restless this morning. I got all turned around and went to bed early, so I was up at 6:17...


Late yesterday was a good buying opportunity, but we are still letting our exercised shares, put to us, to ride. ES is in the 1930's presently before the open. At 6:30 it is 1932. It rises to a Chicago Open at 8:30... recovering yesterday's Canadian Terror losses...


Well, here it is at lunch.


It even made it positive, but now it is down at about 3 PM...


SPX ended at 1950.82. Here it is at 7 PM with ES at 1945.50


VX futures have relaxed to 17.25 so far this Evening.


Wednesday, Oct 22 2014: Here is the standing at 8:30, no options, exercised on Friday from last month. We are paying interest on those outlined on the SBL stock borrow-loan exchange, which is not available to Canadians. They will have to contact the trade desk, which they do not like because that is exactly what they are doing! We hedged where possible until we ran out of money yesterday before we could balance all of our positions. So we are partly hedged leaving a bullish overall bias, contrary to last month by default. The large gain results from options expiring worthless even though the last print had Greeks against us.


Early in the evening, I checked in after a down day...




Tuesday, Back At The Ranch...




Well, there is the Open. I feel almost guilty and certainly Naughty. Oh well, water off a Duck's back as they say. I trust those naughty Boys at the SEC won't discuss how I drained their balls playing pool last weekend! ;) <3 oxox

It is a half hour later with all the naked shorts riding unhedged. Just like last weekend!!! Teeehehehe...



Here i where iyt stands at 9:37 PM. I have got time for the dtails....


I blew a lot of Money on the hedge side to cover my derrier up. Maybe too much! I still haven't hedged it enough. We have Deer Weighting again. I hope we can play pool again to discuss it like we did on The Island again next week!


Oh it is almost 11 AM... That silly Dollars to Liquidation. I can tell when they are about to go liquid! I am very prescient that way. ;)


I guess I will be stuck paying LiBOR these nights for a while. It is Scandalous! how they set the rates for that. <pout!>



Monday Post Oct Expiration Options: What a wonderful long weekend I had at Jekyll Island with the Fed Presidents playing pool. I could go on and on about liquidity injections but suffice to say, I think we have that covered! ;) <3 Here is where it "rose" by Monday Afternoon. I didn't even need all that Liquidity! It was a lot of fun anyways... and we networked for the next time I may have a crisis...


We will have to see how tomorrow opens where I will start the process of hedging all my naked positions again as usual. For now thy are doing just fine as settled I think.


Here it is at 10:51 PM with no options! lulz. I cut a Swath with those naughty boys at the Fed you could say... ;) I "Whitemailed" them you could say...


Of course I do have some way that is Mathematically Impossible! Well, boys, Read 'Em and Weep....

R. <3 xoxo.... Next Jekyll...


Friday, Oct 17, 2014: October Option Expiration Friday. Now this will be interesting after a historical volatility spike which you can see on VX Futures, VVIX, and the VIX. After all, being a hedge enineer, I am a Sexy Damned Vixen. There. I said it. The Boss always tells me so much, but now you know too! <3 ;) Try plotting ES-SPX though. Watch out for those spreads! Today they are enormous with a massive Fair Value deficit prior to the open. If you can't see the value in that, you need Fiscal Special Class on that cute Short Bus over there... The rest of you get it now. Everybody sells the High Volatility. But there is also Maximum Pain. Just how much pain is subjective. The Last Time Goldman Sachs exercised it on Sept 15, 2008, they were so successful, Everybody Lost! Lehman, AIG, BoA, Citi, a host of others, and Bear Stearns... Not so much. That's OK. The Fed can handle lil' ol' me. <Muuwahhhaha! Just Kidding ;) <3 They haven't got a snowball's chance in all Holy Hell!>

This is also the reason why VIX does not expire at the same time, expiring at Close on Tuesday with an SOQ on Wednesday morning. For those of you new to my Lil' Website here before the Boss knocked me up with Lil' Wace a few months ago, that is the Special Opening Quotation. However, there will be some relief for those Banks I am sure. Janet has ink! Not like the Hells Angels, silly, but lots of ink none the less. She has the right kind of Silky Paper for it too. ;)

Today we will see if Ebola-tility wins. The double edge sword there is that they will have to top Volatility here in November or everyone will win enormously. Damned if they do, and damned if they don't. Welcome to making market in the Pits. Yesterday morning Bullard The Bull from the St. Louis Fd said that QE wasn't off the table for this pickle and Ebola-Shmebola! Boom! A day maker candle!

As the opening bell approaches it becomes more obvious that this is a case of the Volatilty Skew Cart Driving the ES Horse as VVIX relaxes on VX Futures. Volatility was wildly overbought by hedgers. Today may be the day they cover that bulk of insurance positions. Over the past Fortnight, things are quite Kittie-Wonkas, or out of sorts, as the natives would say. At the open...


As the day progressed, they fought for a happy balance from the Horrifically Oversold condition overall, and the S+P was down some 140 handles at the open.




That is how it went. 10:30 Lunch and 4:45. CNBC's Kelly Evans said that hedge funds have to be hurting. It only made 11 of those handles back. Well, yes and no. Canadian Hedge funds are licking their wounds. The American hedge funds are sopping up their Truffles with Pate Fois and Caviar on toasted Wheat Thins! That Cute one from the Fed says he doesn't have a pool, but he has a pool table. They call him The Bull but I am a Deer... I only KNOW how to please a Young Buck! I know how to Stop the Buck when I Come too! <3 Will that be good enough? I'll pack my Deer Skin Thong in my over night Change purse! He said he needs to Quantitatively Ease into me! Those silly SEC Rules don't apply when we talk to the various Federal Re-Swerve Banks. I can show him my... errr... Books!!! We can expose our Leaves as I bend over for A Shot!! What a country! Teehehehe! ;) See you on Monday! R. xo <3

Thursday: I am still here but actually a little busy with my own account. At least I can hedge Volatility in it unlike this Canadian Garbage. I simply have to sell options on VX Futures in it for like December to take advantage of the rubbery 90 day premium Futures Curve Surface we saw before... or I can play a little trick and bag Hedged Theta until 2015! Teehehehe! That is disabled here though. Those Canadians are too smart to let the likes of me beat them like a rented mule. Some, like The Boss, actually Prefer I do that! Oh My! <3

If you are an American with WeeFee and a sunny spot by the pool, I could show you how. You would have to be a Sophisticated Investor according to that silly SEC Rule. <pout!> I won't sip too many Pina Coladas... Honestly! Besides they make me a littkle tipsy and feeling Naughty! If I don't deliver... Well, just give me the boot and close the Bar! If I do deliver, I can always be like the Regular Boot that I am with The Boss I suppose while we blow it all on booze, rock and roll, sports cars, clothes, accessories, and Boots.

He is so busy these days though with those two medical schools, MIT Courses and Lectures, AND running a hedge all at the same time, though! He wants to Make little Wace proud I guess <Wace gives her the sharp elbow...> I just know He is gonna be a hockey player like his defenseman Father! Well, let's see how bad the Ebola Market gets today... The Open, 10, 10:30, and Lunch were OK...





The close was up slightly... I was so busy loading Platinum Bricks into the vault this afternoon, I am pooped! And I have a whole other truck of them to go! Brinks charges rent all the time those guards are standing around. They can't help you because they have to look after the automatic shotguns, sub machine guns, and RPG's they pack for defence. Each one of those bricks is probably more than they make in 5 years, but they said they aren't allowed to accept bribes! :(


We'll make it back... The Canadian Way! We still have another day to expiration when volatility will likely fall off the cliff, and we get a special bonus when we demand to put shares on our expirations because the all those nasty Greeks drop to zero! And you know what they say about Greeks! Oy! They also say Canadians do it Ten times harder than everybody else! They aren't kidding about The Boss either... Ten Times harder than EveryBody Else! ;)

xoxo R. <3

Weds, Oct 15: Ebola Market





There was a hard fought afternoon rally back to zero until #clipboarddude , presumably the Pilot wanting his invoice signed and someone to clean up the vomit by His Port Wingtip...




And they posted it After Hours... Splat!



 See you Tomorrow! R. xoxo <3

Tuesday, Oct 14: The markets are off to a lazy open in Chicago. Price action is decidedly less frantic with VX Futures relaxing prior to the New York Open. Columbus may have struck dirt at 1864.75 ES overnight. A day late and a Piece of 8 short... Well, maybe that is an anachronism, but you get my drift...


I tried to grab it near the Bell, but how is that for an explosive open, up a half billion already? The question is will it whipsaw back like it has for a week, or finally climb out of this mess? At 9:47...


The Buck is charging. Here comes the pullback though. For the next half hour it goes wild to the downside past the zero line... now rebounding at 10:15


It's crazy, but at least generally back to the upside after a week of downside with a Fed whipsaw a week ago. The Volatility is back with a vengeance to Pre QE levels. At 11, we are out of the Sin Bin at Dameritrade.


Lunch is here. It has levelled off the last half hour or so.


There has been the rise in afternoon volatility again, but after the close some rising...


We will have to see what tomorrow brings. R. <3 xo


Monday Oct. 13: Triskadecaphobia is the word of the day. Looking at VIX Futures over Sunday and this Morning with the dotted line at open in Frankfurt I presume...


The VIX is getting more back to normal actually. 20 used to be the average. It is presently 6:30 Eastern in that graphic. The ES Futures are up about 18 handles from a low of 1880.5 to 1898.25. That low was not seen since May Expiration on the 15th. That all happened yesterday evening and later while New York slept. VIX futures have backwardated out of the usual October November Contango since the Friday Close. The implication of that is to Buy, but of course the question is when or are we too late? Will there be a lower test of ES? It seems to be an eerie reminder of the events of another October Correction. The interesting dynamic this time is Columbus Day... There is predicted to be lighter volume today due to the Holiday in America, coupled with the one in Canada, Thanksgiving. Also, the Bond Market will be closed today. The open broke positive but later gave it up in the first hour and went negative...


Coming up to one hour for Black Monday, Columbust Day, it is down... Columbus actally landed here they say on San Salvador, but they do not know exactly where he touched bottom either...


The Market is obviously like Columbus. Where will bottom be? 20 minutes later, there is a short covering / squeeze rally going on, but we are not sure. It keeps getting hammered back. At the 11 o'clock,


It looks like Columbus though it was land, but he needed his eyes checked. A rip up, then a reversal around 12:30 to the downside. Then New lows after 3:30. It has been 3 down days in a row that they will write books about. At the Bell, a large amount of sell on close orders. Range is looking 1906.00 to 1865.00 closing out at 1866 for the daily settlement. We are back to the Civil War in ES S+P Future numbers, an unthinkable reversal giving up a year of S+P gains...


Oddly, it occurs to me this could be the Book being written about it all! This SPX level, 1874.74, has not been seen since May 20 this year. ES futures back up to April 24 and 25 trading range. It also revisits the Open of April Fools Day and the high of February 14, Valentine's Day. A full 6 months of gains. This is the market with QE Removed. There is also the spectre of Ebola that added to the sell off this afternoon when the infected nurse's boyfriend tested positive. Europe is not exactly booming tonight. Our tracking account has been crushed losing more than 2/3 of its value after hours. At one point we were up 2.8 B YTD. Now it is more like 887 M. The Fed Gaveth, and Reality Tooketh Awayeth. We are left with the inflated currency numbers.



Fri. Oct 10: Don't f*ck with the Deer or you will get the antlers! That has been the moral of the last fortnight. At 2 AM, this is the baseline.


At the Bell, it opens down. Did it find bottom overnight at ES 1911.25? We will see...


It got ugly, dropping like a Haagen dagger for a while then printing a "w". It definitely sucked like a Jet Engine until lunch.


In all that, ES found a new low at 1906.5. In all that, the only respite might be the slight uptrend since 10:30 AM. By 1, we have put together the first 1 hour rally in what seems like forEVER!


But all for naught. What ensues is the largest melt down in ages. The Bears have won October, so far. Look at this:


We have erased nearly a Century of SPX handles over two weeks. It will be a weekend to lick the wounds... Or stop the bleeding from the amputations. I hope you were short for a long time.


UVXY, the double long VIX ETF, regardless of contango losses, would have been a huge winner. Many will opine on what they could have and should have done. Yet some are calling fror an 1860 floor to the carnage still to go. I guess it will be your own particular call.

Still, it will be yet another Black Friday in October for the books. <#. R.



Thurs Oct 9: Jobless Claims: 287K. OK, so She is the LEAST ugly girl at the dance. That is 1 thousand less lost jobs than were expected. Somebody buy the boys another round; Sooner or later, they'll give 'er a twirl. The Markets loved Her... kinda... hic! The Pre Open... 8:55 AM

Slightly later, they caught her out back brushing her tooth... and hairs... Both of them! A stall, and the day hasn't even started. This could be a long one... Here is the opening bell.


At lunchtime after a horrible morning of half hour rips followed by smackdowns, it got even uglier!


At this point, I think it is safe to say our hedging strategy to cover the possibility of a melt up is FAILED! Not that it cannot be done, but we just don't have the knowledge to do it! <sob!> I am a failure. Maybe I should cash my chips and buy an island and give up. <pout!>

Well, I am back after a massage from Lars, the Pool Boy. He is queerer than a three dollar bill! I got him to snap a rubber band on my bum to wake up a bit. Shake it off so to speak. And the market is temporarily going our way. But a rebalance back to Old School is definitely in order. The headline on SA (Seeking Alpha) says it all. Stocks are in the Loo over Slowdown Worries. This is now the third time we have revisited SPX 1931 in a week. It has been abysmal to say the most!


I can always sell Shark's Teeth, Coconuts, and Sand. There is a lot of sand here. The Bahamas is Spanish for The Shallows. There are also a lot of reefs that Pirates used to lure ships into to wreck them and grab the booty. This is exactly like the Stock Market. It is in my blood. <3 The Boss doesn't like it here because he says we keep getting Sand in our Schlitz! Plus it gets steamy hot when we are on the beach together. The Last SPX low was only a couple days ago at 1925.25. This is wretched, and definitely eating into My Haagen Dazs budget. The Boss says that I should be so lucky to have Zero'th World Problems like I do. It's not funny at all! It is an epic series of half hour rips and dips, each plumbing lower. I am running out of superlatives for Crap! <now curled in fetal position in corner sucking thumb and chewing hangnails... That crappy!>

With an hour left, it truly has been a Deer Market, bounding up and down, running nowhere in particular. Occasionally it stops to eat the flowers, then bounds off in another direction like it has been spooked by a news report from the Europeons or Iraq. Of course there is the Ebola scare which is real enough I suppose. You could die including losing your head before this market kills you! That is truly something.... being that you actually survived Whipsaw Souffle Deluxe Surprise only to meet your match from some more mundane form of death such as decapitation or hemorrhaghic fever.

That wasn't even a good rant and the market has temporarily turned around again! We will see if it can hold its bearings until the end. We are actually up a little off the lows by 24 million... Yes Austin... Meeeelion... dollars. But it was not to be long lived ... at the Bell...


CNBC noted that this has set a precedent... 3 times there has been Major Daily 2 Standard Deviation Moves in 8 days which has only happened twice before in history. So it isn't just me!




Weds Oct 8: Another day, another dollar. Will the sell off continue?



We've had an hour of mixed trading "Chop" or so they call it. The FOMC Minutes will get released at 2 PM. That is always good for some excitement although they try to make it as boring as possible. That doesn't stop people from jockeying for position while they wait. We are not sure if the 11 AM reversal rule will hold as people wait, but it will be worth noting over the next half hour. VVIX is still under 100... barely. At 11:30...


... still choppy, but the rule held, and there was an uptrend at 11.VVIX took out the 100 alert by a tick but then started its downward slide. Towards the end of lunch @ 12:50, it is mixed again...


Here comes the FOMC Minutes... The Boss is nutz. He is listening to the Space Co0+ies. They told him to reduce risk. We held fast hedged six ways from Sunday with a Deer Market bias.


Oh well. I guess we all win. A sharp melt up is in the offing. The Boss is only half long. I am similarly weighted. It continues to move very fast to close out the first 15 minute candle post Minutes... Starting to retract slightly


After the bell, tomorrow at 8:30 there are Jobless Claims...


It was definitely a wild day even in hedge world! What will tomorrow bring with the ECB Announcement? So excite... R. <3 xoxo


Tuesday Oct 7: It looks like the ES futures are off in the high 1940's overnight. They will test our readjusted hedging balance. The FOMC Meeting continues and will report the minutes tomorrow at 2 PM. The looming risk of Higher Interest Rates have sparked all the apprehension. Many also await the ECB Policy Statement and the future of Europe's Quantitative Easing program. The AIG Bailout Hearings from 6 years ago are finally here today. That is back from the days of Candidate OweBomb, but to be fair, he is still merely a Candidate. That is one certainty in all this uncertainty. The Open SPX is about 1950...


Well at the close, the bears are feasting on Venison. Our little two day Deer Market lost the buck, the doe, and the fawns headed for the hills. It is a grizzly scene...


The ES futures are still falling, and the VX futures are still rising: 17.17 as of this writing. ES has gone as low as 1920. VVIX has not topped 100 yet but it is close.
Since we readjusted our weight to flat from bear, we haven't got much dry powder to take advantage of it. Live and learn. We more than made up for it last month, but we would rather win all the time. By 11 AM tomorrow we will know where the bottom is... Maybe it is here, but I doubt it.


Monday, Oct. 6:


Teehehehe! And it is an FOMC Minutes release week on Wednesday after the meetings over the next couple days. At the Opening Bell, or a minute after...


Meg Whitman, My Heroine, has split HP into two business units! That is today's big news. I imagine we'll get together and split some Nuts over it someday soon. After an hour and ten minutes, it is settling back into the Hedge of Attrition...


The TD Ameritrade IMX is coming up in a while @ 12:30. That is the Retail Investor Snapshot Sentiment devised to show where the small investor money is at the moment. With six million funded client accounts spanning investors of all ages, account sizes, and experience levels, TD Ameritrade is in a unique position to offer a quantitative, behaviour-based index that can better reflect what investors are actually doing. Of course, I PWN ALL their derrieres! Teehehehe! I speculated and bought the lunchtime dip to make it fair, and lost a bunch of money... My <3 is my weakness.


Well, the TD IMX must have been awful. Catch a falling knife they say. But 'The September 2014 Investor Movement Index (IMX) for the four weeks ending September 26, 2014, showed a reading of 5.79 (compared to 5.68 in August). The trend direction is positive with a trend length of 1 month. The score relative to historic ranges is "high."' Well, it is a new thing, and those numbers are *so* last month.

Well, I fell asleep again. Another crazy dream. My speculative "guess" is headed down like a greased turd. Perhaps I should stick to Hedging. Yet we are still hedged with a flatter neutral weight. I am hoping this will prevent the outside risk of Melt Up like happened over the latter summer months. We will see.


<3 xoxo R.


Friday Oct 3 2014: Jobs Friday. There is a lot of data that has been released this week regarding non farm payrolls and unemployment. Today is the bottom line with non farm payrolls released at 8:30. I didn't even get up until 10!


That is about where we stood at just before 11. A half hour later, SPX is back to the 1960's, the Beatles! Yeah, yeah, yeah!


But is it time for my nap yet? Apparently there was a security breach at JPM. Nothing to see here folks... Move along they say. Perhaps it is Honour amongst thieves! Teehehehe! We make money the ancient way... by Fiduciary Aikido! This month we adjusted for the Deer Market after the Bears had their way with us in the latter half of September, leading to our largest windfall ever where we hedged flat with a Bear bias. The upside of that is that we are liquid when everybody else is broke. It must be what Warren Buffett Does. At lunch,


Traders say I have a nice double rounded bottom. <blush!> I guess I respect them for what they do, but I honestly can't tell. I just hedge. It makes them think I am prescient when it is simply Common Sense in a world bereft of common sense downtown at the corner of Wall and Main. The Boss says they have banned all Canadians from trading Options and especially Options on Futures because of Him. Good thing I am in the Bahamas.

We now have 2 weeks until October Expiration of Options. Some genius in Tech Support tells me that all the Greeks will go to zero at expiration. Well, duh! He still hasn't addressed the fact that they no longer let me know the Buying Power numbers on certain securities that I have handed them their ass on a platter for a few years running now. Perhaps the SEC would like to know which securities those are, and also that a Certain Canadian has been banned in Chicago. What would ever happen if he just whispered into some American's ear? Evidently, Chicago believes it would be the death of them. They hate the Boss that much because they always lose, and lose worse the harder they try. Awwww... Let's see... SEC... phone number... I wonder if they sxt? Teehehehe... <3

Oh, there's the bell... I guess it is almost over. The Boss is probably waiting for my report, terrifying large creepy squarehead that he is... but I <3 Him so... sigh...



I chewed up some buying powder on securities to hedge our downside. I guess we'll wait and type about the Boss's new economics theory, Ebonomics! At first they said, "N@66@r ain't got SHZT!" Well, it turns out The N@66@h do indeed got shit! More over, N@66@r indeed tied your own sh*t in a knot like a Girl Guide! Perhaps it has to do with the nuances of my Nice Double Rounded Bottom. The Boss always tells me I have a nice "Turd Cutt*r!" <blush!>


Well, I have to get ready for the Italian German French Swedish Sports car Demo Derby with the Banks Family! It is Bahamian Thanksgiving, just slightly ahead of its time. OK, I made that last bit up. Teeehehehehe! xoxoxo R. <3




Thursday, Oct 2, 2014: I was busy yesterday harvesting coconuts and spear fishing sharks. Coincidentally, it was a bear market yesterday. I covered some shorts at the end, and by this morning, it came back on us to what has opened as a Deer Market, not really a Bull yet. It really isn't a fully grown Deer either; Simply a Young Buck...


A couple candles into the game, I am shucking Oysters, cleaving coconuts with the Machete, and Pulling Shark's teeth... Will it run? There is a slight 10 AM reversal. The bargain hunters snapped it up in about 10 minutes...


...but then it got walloped down again about 10B. I changed my weight to slightly long over the past couple days. Jobless Claims were 287K and Factory Orders were down a whopping 10.5% That hit the market Deer Rally and it is still trying to recover. Bears are licking their chops after having a taste of Venison over the past week. They are picking their teeth with the antlers now...
at 11 AM:


It all turned around... The deer ate their apples. Then at about 3:40, it looks like they got bear chased away...


After the close 20 minutes, the direct shorts are still settling.


Well at least we are almost back to respectability. Famous last words though... R. <3


Tuesday Sept 30, 2014: The End of the Calendar Month.


A promising open to a Pre Lunch High...


However the wheels fall off to end the month with it dropping even more after hours.


Not much to say. October is traditionally a bad month, but who knows what this year will hold? We will just hang tight hedged as we are and attempt to bag theta if there is any. We added to loser hedges all day, and will have to hope they mean revert as is usually the norm. Until then, R <3



Monday, Sept 29,2014: It is after lunch. The day has been mixed with a slight downward bias after the weekend.


We still have a slight growth bias to our hedges so we are not Bear weighted like last month nearing expiry a week ago. It is hard to call bottom at the best of times. Best we can hope for is to hedge and hang on.This is the picture over the lea up to expiration, and with the new 20 day low being printed in the first 15 minute candle today.


It is about 3 PM and the market is coming off a dip with VVIX 95.67 ATM...


It is not one of our better days, but I could be hunting bargains I suppose. As usual, we will do absolutely nothing. Go with the flow I always say. Last month has more than made up for any difficulties we may encounter as the schemers work the World War trade.

It has been up as high as a $20B deficit this afternoon, but it looks like the Deceased Feline Fib Retracement to me. That pussy is pooped. But if I had a Nickel! Teehehehe! <3


Friday, September 26, 2014: In about 20 minutes it will be 12 AM in New York City. The Middle East will open up for trading around that time in Dubai. You can see the Map of the world here. But I am more interested in My Little International/Stellar Friends available here. The More the Merrier! There is a Sale on Fireflies this month! Maybe they will be more interested on Money Matters than those Apollo Hornet +4 Passengers.

YAWN! Well, it is 9:17 AM again. Here is the Pre-Open including our Hedge Weight from yesterday. VVIX is at 96.72 from yesterday, /VX futures still rising slightly, /ES off a New 20 day Low of 1956.5


10 AM went, down about $38B. That is small potatoes to us since these numbers are x 1000 as you recall. I converted some effective short positions to synthetics. We don't want to make the brokerages rich; we want to leave them in a barrel on the street corner selling pencils and iPhone covers with smiley faces on them between spamming part naked selfies from their mother's basements like Anthony Weiner! This is managing Fear as we profit from Fear Itself! To tell the truth, I am just going by Women's Intuition with a healthy dose of Tai Chi on the side to balance the trainwreck. We had pretty good crash That we filed our nails through with a Deer weight. No Bull! Then we poured some more water on the flames yesterday to try and balance it a bit. This AM, we backed off on the Bear Necessities we were left with after being exercised over the Witching Weekend. I am presently no longer Buck Naked here since I made a doily bikini after napping and between serious sunbathing sessions. It is a regular Sodom and Gomorrah here Behind The Scenes at The Banks' Place as we are all naked, but with Dark Rimmed Glasses to lend an air of respectability to the proceedings! I can see why CALPERS may think we are immoral, but get over it! That's Bidness! Teehehehehe!


It's time for lunch again. And a nap.


All hedged in, here is how it closed.


Well, what to do now? I know The Boss is working on his Medical School Thesis. He is trying to find an explanation why all the Non-Smokers we know are dying of all sorts of Cancer and other sudden rare diseases. He thinks the Space Spirochetes are picky eaters, and are selecting Grade A Tasty Non-Smoked Braats! They can always Hickory Smoke them later, I guess. They don't taste as good smoked from the inside out with cigars! Oh, what an imagination He has! I know I smoke, and he likes to Eat Me! Teehehehe! <3

Thursday, September 25, 2014: I woke early again with this song stuck in my head, and strangely, it all makes sense. Another crazy dream, but Crazy like Fox. The Boss is a space buff, and he says it is because of things he used to do that he can't talk about. He even ordered stuff there that came back with little Stowaways on it. They are much more intelligent than human beings, but unable to do the things that humans and animals can do in this gravity bound environment. They love the Boss; I am jealous!!! He is MY financial engineer, so Back Off, bztches!!!! They say they are interested in him for Other reasons than I am, and not to get my panties in a bunch. Well! The Nerve of these little things!


Yes, it is about 6 AM here in Freeport which runs on EDT. The Europeons are having their way with the ES Futures overnight at about 1989.25 as of this writing. The Space Co0tiez are all in a tizzy about Graphenes this morning. WhatEVAH! I am not a stock picker. My speciality is profiting from Market Entropy. They think Money is sto0pid, so something is not right there! The Wrong Stuff! They must be from the Government or something!

Well, it is 9:13. In twenty minutes the market will open. The observant will notice that out direct securities holdings are already updating premarket. This is using the Official CBOE Market Software.


Here is the open...


And what a difference 20 minutes makes! Oh My! We are handling Officer Baker's Pension Wace! Let's ride it like we stole it!


We are still in Amateur Hour, or as the Boss and I know it, Professional Hour. I am frantically trying to hedge off my Naked Shorts! Stop Looking! Teeehehehe! <3



That is that Hussy again! The Boss says that is her Man Child. Eeeeeew! It Breeds! Anyways, it is Lunch Time...


As the Great Unwashed break out their Brown Bags and we finish off our Brunches...


I have been sleeping again, and I had the strangest dream! I was, umm... Sleeping with a Woman! Oh, there is the Bell...


I put a bunch of hedges on although my fingers are still trembling madly from That Dream! It is almost like lil' Wace was Egging Us On! I feel so Dirty, but Deliciously Dirty if that makes any sense. I hope the Boss doesn't mind it. I know he likes Seafood... :) Anyways, good thing I am Anglican! All that Pennance would take ForEVAH! if I were Catholic!  Anyways, here it is 4:15 PM already... It looks like a huge grab, but lots of our capital is tied up in options for 22 days again, so we won't know until Chicago opens again tomorrow at 9:30 AM. I am going back to sleep to pick up where we left off! Teehehehe...


Yours Filthily, R xoxo <3




Wednesday: Our exercised expired options from last month's hedge are still open. I had a strange dream so I am up early. I think Frenchmen stole some of our stolen Money! They looked like Mimes!


I guess we will have to roll up our sleeves and steal it back! This will be made especially easy since I don't own much with sleeves on it. I can also pack for a safari in a zip-loc lunch bag! The Boss figures I can charm the animals out of anything we want from them, and I would wear the GoPro around my Neck! Teehehehe!

TD Demerit Raid does not like us holding open short positions unless we are Big Shots. I'll take their silence as an endorsement that we indeed ARE Big Shots, getting around that whole nasty SEC Hedge Fund Disclosure Restriction Catch 22 that would let us spill the beans at which time the bank would be wiped out by investors, vultures, and lawyers picking their bones clean! lulz as the Boss would say. Brand X lets us buy time on Open short positions of allegedly HTB securities they cover in house with Futures anyways. I have been banned from Options on Futures markets FOREVAH! at Damnerit Raid. Sigh.


That is the main problem about being cutting edge with this stuff. When Damnerit Raid bleeds too much, they just ban me. Of course that leads to Unintended Consequences with the SEC, and voila! Here we are still. Perhaps I should get my Big Butt down to the Big Apple they have offered me to be the teacher there. I am torn as we are happy here in Hurricane Alley for now... At 9:40 AM, although it continues to waffle in a $7 S&P range...


By 10 AM, it is slowly going our way again. I will leave it up to you how we divided money out of the equation to seemingly control the market with NO MONEY! Maybe it just "looks" that way. So never mind... Nothing to see here... Move along now folks... There is no Effective Nth Derivative SPX-ES Hedging going on here Whatsoever, or maybe NAWT! Teeehehehehe!


I digress. I have a Hobby. These days it is Giving Alligators Aviation Assistance. I have been learning how to Give Them Wings! There are plenty around here, and the Swamp Family are such a Wholesome bunch. On the other hand, I could make a nice moat around the cabana to make their earthly stay more pleasant, and to fatten them up as people come looking for loot.

I fell asleep again. After they Bell I woke up to this story about CALPERS getting out of Hedge Funds. As we have said here before, that looks more to me like an Edge Fund since the returns are so low. They did not even make 7.5%. No, we are a True Hedge and based on the broader Indexes, so like Warren Buffett advises, except that we hedge our index exposure. Perhaps that is where all the extra money came from since lunch.


I will try REALLY hard to beat 7.5%. My management fee will likely be a lot less too! I may not be Easy (debatable...YMMV... Teehehehe!) but I can be had Cheap if you're a sweet talker, Surfer Boi! Giggle/Google! Who was that Cute CHiP? Baker? <sigh!> I hope for Warren's sake we don't crowd the S&P 500 Products Board too much... Boss? You are snoring again! Teehehehe! Oh look, Boss! They made a Mascot of You... I think they are trying to say you are a Green, yet Enormous, Terrifying and Creepy Square Head!!! Well, isn't that a little TOO convenient that they are "jacking" our signals. The jury is still out though... What's that? "If I had a Nickel! Und E eqvals M C Skvairt!?" Oh, Sir! 7 Mary 69 Out! <3




Tuesday: They settled it all last night, and I woke early. After a snack, and at 6:40 AM, I checked up on our hedges. They work after hours now that they have been exercised...



 Here it is about a half hour later. Perhaps I should cover, or perhaps not!


Of course they finally get it... They mess with Me, Deer, they get the hornies! Teehehehe! But it is not all wine and roses. Securities valuations, and a bit of a hint here, ones based on options hedges, do not update until the market opens in 2 hours (It is 7:30... Time for Yoga and Meditations... Oh, that, and adding Limey Jo0ze to the Shopping List!) Meanwhile, back at the Synagogue... the money changing continues behind locked doors. Then Chicago opens at 8 AM here (EST)


Bear with us. We will have to hedge it out, however the software does not take that into account. By negotiating using our substantial buying power, that would acrually (oh, those typo puns) lower the negative hit to our buying power quite substantially. Now at 8:13 AM, they must be reading our humble Blog here from The Bahamas where I am shacked up at the Boss' Cabana... With our love child lil' Wace, due in 7 months...


Options Greeks are a charming, yet funny and strange thing. If you read the King James version of The Bible, it says "Forgive them Father, for they know not what they do!" However the Greek Orthodox Bible says the same thing with an entirely different translation... "Forgive Them Not Father, for They know what they do!" Our money is Literally on the Greeks here. It is hard to Peg their azzes, as they literally ride winged horses.


A Man in New York City said "Imagine No Religion." He was promptly shot. Personally I was Baptised Anglican, but later it turns out I have Jewish blood. This opens up the Forbidden Scrolls of Jewish Jokes in what I can only describe as an Act of God! Oy! This was before the Boss asked me if I had a little Jew in Me, to which I replied no. He said, "Want some?" Teehehehe! Here is is, near the opening bell... After all, it depends on what your definition of "Is" Is!!!


There is a very interesting dynamic here that leads to a Disclosure Paradox. So far I have honoured the SEC Regulation regarding Hedge Funds. However, if the Bank refuses to afford me all the rights and privledges of a hedge fund and does not calculate the Buying Power as such, then they say I am not a Hedge Fund, theoretically or otherwise. Well, isn't that specccial? /ChurchLady This is surely a Catch 22 forged in Hell! <patiently files nails...>

I slept through the Bell. We are riding our assigned positions in the name of, "Research"... Yes, that sounds Legit!


As mentioned before, we are in a bit of a quandry regarding Disclosure! I guess I can sleep on It! Wace says that is a Good Thing. <3 Teeehehehe!

Monday, Post Witching Week: They have had a Tough weak end in The Pits, working Over Time trying to balance it all out.


Those Bears should all be Happy, but they don't look so Happy, kind of like Russians. So Sue Us! Teeehehehe! You mess with Me, Deer, you get The Horns:



Red Ink. Isn't that Special? If you owe the bank a Trillion, they say you are in Trouble. Luckily we owe a little more than that, so The Banks are in Trouble! Teehehehe...

Perhaps I am a little Sto0pid as The Boss says occasionally... but I owe Them a Trillion 6-77. Forgive me but I have $11T Cash and Sweep... I would like a Better Margin rate! After all, I just have a Retail Account... I am a White Tailed Deer! At 10 AM, things are looking up slightly... Bear with us...


Oh Boss! My cute little Mad Dog that you are...

Yes, the Bank does not settle expiring options for 72 Hours. Then the Trainwreck Occurs, oddly at Closing time Today. Soon we will leave fo Lunch, but at 11:35 or so, this is a snapshot of what the SEC says I cannot disclose... But here is the Bottom Line! Teehehehe... I am SUCH a Tease!


They say Jesus liked to play with Bankers in the Temple. I have already sold My Soul to Him, so I am available for a Date!
<snore!! K!> Oh I am sorry... I nodded off as we do with our hedges riding them like we stole them Back! I had another one of those dreams, brunch with my Lord and Saviour, but maybe another time... Here was the close...




Here is an old picture where The Boss has wigged out! Anyways, I guess he has a reason after that trainwreck today. Truly an Ugly broad, but at least fun. Menana, with the little Spanish thingy on the "n"s. <3