I wish I could link sound files on here. There has to be a way. Maybe i can use a Soundclick.com site, but they complain that the material is too good, and therefore it *must* be copywrited even though it is not. I can insert an image and a video, but not an audio unless I make it a blank video. That kind of sucks, because I have tracks of some very interesting instrumental versions of songs without vocals, and recorded by the biggest bands there ever was in the world.
It's always "something." The market is like that. If you find a way to win at it retail, they will move to close that hole up, or simply middle man it to take away the profit by breaking the dynamics of what makes it work. I have had that happen to myself. There is still a way beyond retail as being the original author of the imitated methodology, I would love to tell you, but I am sure that would kill it as they did when a sample of it was released using different underlying securities.
The fact that it still works simply means they have not found out yet. High Frequency Trading is one that they can't stop though. It looks like they are trying to with the new Michael Lewis book, "Flash Boys." CBOE and CME shares are dropping like a rock. This leads us to another nearly sure thing: Take a short position and then trash the underlying. It helps when you have the backing of the mainstream media. Any Jackass can kick a barn down. Let them try to un-ring that bell.
Monday 24 March 2014
Another Theory
Well, these days we have witnessed the partial Restoration of the Glorious Soviet Union, the bloodiest regime the world has ever known. Perfect. There were too many people anyways. /sarcasm
If I were a Boeing engineer tasked with putting heavy lifters in service in the Third World, I would likely fret a bit. Someday, one of those things would get hijacked by some nutbar, or some pilot could just go postal. How would I stop that using lessons learned the Hard Way from 911 and the like?
Time for a "Meeting." It seems the first thing the nuts always do is turn off the transponder. The people will all get killed anyways. Have to stop them from using it as a weapon. Couldn't you just booby trap the thing so if it were ever turned off, it would release gas into the cockpit, then spring the door? Nahh... Scrub the door latch. At least they won't be using that thing as a missile. Besides, the Sky Marshall will have the keys, then He can be The Hero.
What, they don't have sky marshalls in that part of the sky? Sucks to be them Skippy. Just WTF did they turn off the Transponder? What was their intent? Sounds like the kind of thing Management would come up with in a brainstorming session. Of course they would keep it secret.
I would likely just set it up so that it would automatically transpond the code for hijack when turned off. Likewise send an ACARS dump as a freebie. You could otherwise make it transpond "DOUCHE IN CONTROL." It would arm the Marketing Gasser so Marketing would be in control on their iPhones an' iPads. What EVAH!
Management would likely over ride this wisdom to show how much smarter they were than the engineers, and why they deserved more money. After all, they're gonna need to buy another plane that way if they just screw the transponder turner offer. That is why they make Marketing the managers. Jettison the flight recorders too. The bottom line on top according to Dilbert. That's Bidness!
As such, it could be highly likely. And the market marches on.
If I were a Boeing engineer tasked with putting heavy lifters in service in the Third World, I would likely fret a bit. Someday, one of those things would get hijacked by some nutbar, or some pilot could just go postal. How would I stop that using lessons learned the Hard Way from 911 and the like?
Time for a "Meeting." It seems the first thing the nuts always do is turn off the transponder. The people will all get killed anyways. Have to stop them from using it as a weapon. Couldn't you just booby trap the thing so if it were ever turned off, it would release gas into the cockpit, then spring the door? Nahh... Scrub the door latch. At least they won't be using that thing as a missile. Besides, the Sky Marshall will have the keys, then He can be The Hero.
What, they don't have sky marshalls in that part of the sky? Sucks to be them Skippy. Just WTF did they turn off the Transponder? What was their intent? Sounds like the kind of thing Management would come up with in a brainstorming session. Of course they would keep it secret.
I would likely just set it up so that it would automatically transpond the code for hijack when turned off. Likewise send an ACARS dump as a freebie. You could otherwise make it transpond "DOUCHE IN CONTROL." It would arm the Marketing Gasser so Marketing would be in control on their iPhones an' iPads. What EVAH!
Management would likely over ride this wisdom to show how much smarter they were than the engineers, and why they deserved more money. After all, they're gonna need to buy another plane that way if they just screw the transponder turner offer. That is why they make Marketing the managers. Jettison the flight recorders too. The bottom line on top according to Dilbert. That's Bidness!
As such, it could be highly likely. And the market marches on.
Saturday 15 March 2014
My Theory
Everybody has their theory about Flight MH370 since it has been missing for more than a week. Now they figure it has been hijacked. But there are some other funny happenings. Russia cashed $101 Billion worth of Treasury Bonds Friday morning. They last time they did that was 1956 before they occupied Hungary. Today at the UN, Russia just vetoed the Security Counsel resolution that the Crimean occupation was illegal.
One possibility is that MH370 was stolen. It would be just what they need to deliver a nuke to Downtown Moscow or Tel Aviv. Moscow? It was tracked as far away as Kazakhstan according to one news graphic. Chechnyans might have a use for it. Bill Still has been thinking about it too. He knows that they were talking with the engines for several hours. Gee, ya think they had a GPS on 'em? Altitude data shows a struggle took place after the last contact, and it flew over 45,000 feet, above the service ceiling, then descended below 24,000. But all they would say is it was covered by the Inmarsat 3 footprint. They wouldn't disclose the location.
Now this is all gonna suck for the markets whenever it all comes down. How do you protect against that? Buy puts in a Hail Mary trade? Could go broke doing that too. It only goes to show you that if you find a way to protect yourself like Long Gold, they will move to block it like they did last year when gold dropped like a rock. The gold bugs got burnt being conditioned into a long gold mentality. If you shorted it, you were loving it until recently, but nobody thought that.
The Long Hedge buying opposing securities is inherently blocked by being a sure loser as well. That is when you buy balanced amounts of two opposing securities like XIV and TVIX or VIIX. They have moved to block the opposite short hedge by making them hard to borrow. They like to keep that one for themselves.
Then there is cash. Watch inflation come home to roost. Venezuela has 57% inflation now. Russia is about to get hit hard as well. The Ruble is rivaling a greased turd. American Equities are rising, but how long does that last until inflation is rising faster? And should you stay ahead, the lead hedge a la Smith and Wesson will be poised to collect. Keep that in mind.
I guess we will be finding out what kind of soldiers Gen Y will make. It seems to be the time tested end game of Democrat social experiments, or at least it has been for over 150 years. Ain't no reason it is gonna change soon AFAICT.
One possibility is that MH370 was stolen. It would be just what they need to deliver a nuke to Downtown Moscow or Tel Aviv. Moscow? It was tracked as far away as Kazakhstan according to one news graphic. Chechnyans might have a use for it. Bill Still has been thinking about it too. He knows that they were talking with the engines for several hours. Gee, ya think they had a GPS on 'em? Altitude data shows a struggle took place after the last contact, and it flew over 45,000 feet, above the service ceiling, then descended below 24,000. But all they would say is it was covered by the Inmarsat 3 footprint. They wouldn't disclose the location.
Now this is all gonna suck for the markets whenever it all comes down. How do you protect against that? Buy puts in a Hail Mary trade? Could go broke doing that too. It only goes to show you that if you find a way to protect yourself like Long Gold, they will move to block it like they did last year when gold dropped like a rock. The gold bugs got burnt being conditioned into a long gold mentality. If you shorted it, you were loving it until recently, but nobody thought that.
The Long Hedge buying opposing securities is inherently blocked by being a sure loser as well. That is when you buy balanced amounts of two opposing securities like XIV and TVIX or VIIX. They have moved to block the opposite short hedge by making them hard to borrow. They like to keep that one for themselves.
Then there is cash. Watch inflation come home to roost. Venezuela has 57% inflation now. Russia is about to get hit hard as well. The Ruble is rivaling a greased turd. American Equities are rising, but how long does that last until inflation is rising faster? And should you stay ahead, the lead hedge a la Smith and Wesson will be poised to collect. Keep that in mind.
I guess we will be finding out what kind of soldiers Gen Y will make. It seems to be the time tested end game of Democrat social experiments, or at least it has been for over 150 years. Ain't no reason it is gonna change soon AFAICT.
Thursday 13 March 2014
Let's pick a bottom
Or maybe not. The toughest thing is finding bottom. Of course, "That is where the bargains are," Captain Obvious says. Likewise, you could try an inverse ETF and try to pick the top. It isn't any easier, but at least it will have your attention, and you may even make some more dry powder to lose trying to pick bottom!
This time the setup is a pending referendum on Sunday where there will be a corrupt election/referendum going on in Crimea, the crown jewel of Ukraine. We saw today's correction coming since last week... Just see below. Putin wants it back in the Soviet Union not only for a Soviet navy base, but there is also a lot of natural gas at stake in the region too. The last Ukraine government just got kicked out over corruption in Natural Gas dealings among other things, but they are poised to un-kick themselves out to get their gravy train back.
The new Ukraine government says it will be war, and Crimea is not up for grabs. Moscow just ignores them since the Russkies were aligned with the last bunch of Gazprom corrupted gangsters in control instead. The SPX took a 22 handle dump, closed at 1846.34, and futures are trading around 1840 after hours Thursday. Guy Adami thinks 1820 could be the next support level, but let's face it. Nobody has a clue where bottom is, and they didn't see it coming. Catch a falling knife if you dare.
As for the inevitable rebound, the Fed has tapered off the so-called Bernanke Put, so it isn't as much of a padded landing either. You can see that plain as day in the Inverse Volatility Proxies (XIV, SVXY, HVI:TO) and their price action. They used to be rather buoyant after one of these occasional shocks, but not as much so since they started the Taper a few months ago. And then there is the whole nature of an ongoing geopolitical headwind muddying the waters. The Ruble is in the tank at about 37 to the Buck these days, or less than 3 cents since Chairman Putin started his dream of restoring the Soviet Union. Who's is gonna blink first?
So what kind of war? Remember Boznia-Herzegovina? That sorta thing. Russia out-guns Ukraine by about 10 to one, but there is no love lost there since Stalin starved them before and during the second world war. As a matter of fact the Holodomor genocide alone at the hands of Stalin rivaled Hitler's total genocide. The edge goes to Uncle Joe though since he killed the record keepers and burnt the records along with 'em.
I am just playing this market with plastic chips for now myself. Who knows which way it will shake out here? 1737 was the last bottom beginning February with a bang and bounce that has sputtered with rumors of Ukraine nearing war. That's another 100 handles down. As Donald Rumsfeld used to say, "Gee... Can't they ALL lose?" This time we may get that wish, except that Putin's side, and our side in NATO, will be among the multiple losers too.
This time the setup is a pending referendum on Sunday where there will be a corrupt election/referendum going on in Crimea, the crown jewel of Ukraine. We saw today's correction coming since last week... Just see below. Putin wants it back in the Soviet Union not only for a Soviet navy base, but there is also a lot of natural gas at stake in the region too. The last Ukraine government just got kicked out over corruption in Natural Gas dealings among other things, but they are poised to un-kick themselves out to get their gravy train back.
The new Ukraine government says it will be war, and Crimea is not up for grabs. Moscow just ignores them since the Russkies were aligned with the last bunch of Gazprom corrupted gangsters in control instead. The SPX took a 22 handle dump, closed at 1846.34, and futures are trading around 1840 after hours Thursday. Guy Adami thinks 1820 could be the next support level, but let's face it. Nobody has a clue where bottom is, and they didn't see it coming. Catch a falling knife if you dare.
As for the inevitable rebound, the Fed has tapered off the so-called Bernanke Put, so it isn't as much of a padded landing either. You can see that plain as day in the Inverse Volatility Proxies (XIV, SVXY, HVI:TO) and their price action. They used to be rather buoyant after one of these occasional shocks, but not as much so since they started the Taper a few months ago. And then there is the whole nature of an ongoing geopolitical headwind muddying the waters. The Ruble is in the tank at about 37 to the Buck these days, or less than 3 cents since Chairman Putin started his dream of restoring the Soviet Union. Who's is gonna blink first?
So what kind of war? Remember Boznia-Herzegovina? That sorta thing. Russia out-guns Ukraine by about 10 to one, but there is no love lost there since Stalin starved them before and during the second world war. As a matter of fact the Holodomor genocide alone at the hands of Stalin rivaled Hitler's total genocide. The edge goes to Uncle Joe though since he killed the record keepers and burnt the records along with 'em.
I am just playing this market with plastic chips for now myself. Who knows which way it will shake out here? 1737 was the last bottom beginning February with a bang and bounce that has sputtered with rumors of Ukraine nearing war. That's another 100 handles down. As Donald Rumsfeld used to say, "Gee... Can't they ALL lose?" This time we may get that wish, except that Putin's side, and our side in NATO, will be among the multiple losers too.
Friday 7 March 2014
The Weekly Roundup
It is Friday March 7th, 2014 after hours. I haven't said anything lately but what a week.
Monday was a huge 1865-1831 point S&P decline from the Friday High over worries about the Ukrainian Crisis. It looked like Russia was annexing the Crimean Peninsula.
Then Tuesday, it rallied back to 1870 levels. The weird thing was that the news that they were withdrawing was all made up by Putin. The reality on the ground had not changed at all, and in fact, all that was changing was the story. All Crimean government buildings were still occupied by the Russians.
Wednesday Thursday the market wobbled around and floated higher as people kind of realized that the news was a ruse.
Friday the Non Farm Payroll number was good, but Unemployment was up a little to 6.7% from 6.6. After setting a new all time high at 1883.52 after the open, then it slowly started to give up the gains of the day. The real tell was Volatility of the week. Plot XIV over the week and it showed the slow realization that the Russkies were pulling the wool over everybody's eyes.
So what does that mean going forward? Can people be that dumb that they believe the Russians will take back the best part of Ukraine without firing a shot while thumbing their nose at International Law? Apparently, yes.
Does that mean the S&P is hugely overvalued since Monday? Yes. Does it mean that it will correct itself? Not Necessarily. That is because the market is always right, especially when it is wrong. The Market is not only like the Boss, it is Boss.
Therefore, look for a nasty correction to be blamed on anything but the Ukrainian Crisis, and don't question all those lumps under the rug. lol
Monday was a huge 1865-1831 point S&P decline from the Friday High over worries about the Ukrainian Crisis. It looked like Russia was annexing the Crimean Peninsula.
Then Tuesday, it rallied back to 1870 levels. The weird thing was that the news that they were withdrawing was all made up by Putin. The reality on the ground had not changed at all, and in fact, all that was changing was the story. All Crimean government buildings were still occupied by the Russians.
Wednesday Thursday the market wobbled around and floated higher as people kind of realized that the news was a ruse.
Friday the Non Farm Payroll number was good, but Unemployment was up a little to 6.7% from 6.6. After setting a new all time high at 1883.52 after the open, then it slowly started to give up the gains of the day. The real tell was Volatility of the week. Plot XIV over the week and it showed the slow realization that the Russkies were pulling the wool over everybody's eyes.
So what does that mean going forward? Can people be that dumb that they believe the Russians will take back the best part of Ukraine without firing a shot while thumbing their nose at International Law? Apparently, yes.
Does that mean the S&P is hugely overvalued since Monday? Yes. Does it mean that it will correct itself? Not Necessarily. That is because the market is always right, especially when it is wrong. The Market is not only like the Boss, it is Boss.
Therefore, look for a nasty correction to be blamed on anything but the Ukrainian Crisis, and don't question all those lumps under the rug. lol
Monday 3 March 2014
North Korea too...
North Korea fired a couple Scud missiles into the Sea of Japan. Add that to Russia occupying Ukraine and it looks to be a volatile day coming. Fasten your seat belts. We are back to an era of Military cutting at the worst possible time not seen since the Carter days 30 years ago. That preceded unprecedented interest rate hikes, but a couple of years later.
There is also an added geopolitical component with Venezuela trying to shake off a repressive socialist power hungry regime. Perfect storms are hard to engineer I guess, so perhaps they'll trade quantity for quality to manipulate the stock market.
I will guess Gold and Treasuries should take off, but look to Volatility ETF's like UVXY and TVIX to rise initially if it keeps up.
Another update Tuesday: Russia has called off the insurgency. They now call it an exercise. But now they have a new demonstrated financial weapon in their arsenal: The S&P Joystick.
There is also an added geopolitical component with Venezuela trying to shake off a repressive socialist power hungry regime. Perfect storms are hard to engineer I guess, so perhaps they'll trade quantity for quality to manipulate the stock market.
I will guess Gold and Treasuries should take off, but look to Volatility ETF's like UVXY and TVIX to rise initially if it keeps up.
Another update Tuesday: Russia has called off the insurgency. They now call it an exercise. But now they have a new demonstrated financial weapon in their arsenal: The S&P Joystick.
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