Let's pick a bottom

Or maybe not. The toughest thing is finding bottom. Of course, "That is where the bargains are," Captain Obvious says. Likewise, you could try an inverse ETF and try to pick the top. It isn't any easier, but at least it will have your attention, and you may even make some more dry powder to lose trying to pick bottom!

This time the setup is a pending referendum on Sunday where there will be a corrupt election/referendum going on in Crimea, the crown jewel of Ukraine. We saw today's correction coming since last week... Just see below. Putin wants it back in the Soviet Union not only for a Soviet navy base, but there is also a lot of natural gas at stake in the region too. The last Ukraine government just got kicked out over corruption in Natural Gas dealings among other things, but they are poised to un-kick themselves out to get their gravy train back.

The new Ukraine government says it will be war, and Crimea is not up for grabs. Moscow just ignores them since the Russkies were aligned with the last bunch of Gazprom corrupted gangsters in control instead. The SPX took a 22 handle dump, closed at 1846.34, and futures are trading around 1840 after hours Thursday. Guy Adami thinks 1820 could be the next support level, but let's face it. Nobody has a clue where bottom is, and they didn't see it coming. Catch a falling knife if you dare.

As for the inevitable rebound, the Fed has tapered off the so-called Bernanke Put, so it isn't as much of a padded landing either. You can see that plain as day in the Inverse Volatility Proxies (XIV, SVXY, HVI:TO) and their price action. They used to be rather buoyant after one of these occasional shocks, but not as much so since they started the Taper a few months ago. And then there is the whole nature of an ongoing geopolitical headwind muddying the waters. The Ruble is in the tank at about 37 to the Buck these days, or less than 3 cents since Chairman Putin started his dream of restoring the Soviet Union. Who's is gonna blink first?

So what kind of war? Remember Boznia-Herzegovina? That sorta thing. Russia out-guns Ukraine by about 10 to one, but there is no love lost there since Stalin starved them before and during the second world war. As a matter of fact the Holodomor genocide alone at the hands of Stalin rivaled Hitler's total genocide. The edge goes to Uncle Joe though since he killed the record keepers and burnt the records along with 'em.

I am just playing this market with plastic chips for now myself. Who knows which way it will shake out here? 1737 was the last bottom beginning February with a bang and bounce that has sputtered with rumors of Ukraine nearing war. That's another 100 handles down. As Donald Rumsfeld used to say, "Gee... Can't they ALL lose?" This time we may get that wish, except that Putin's side, and our side in NATO, will be among the multiple losers too.