The last week until the Quad Witch should show just how Futile their resistance is. lol
Thursday Mar 5, 2015: There are a couple weeks to go for expiration. We invested about a billion in options a few weeks back. there was a rise around the FOMC Chit Chat with Janet and Congress. There was yesterday's close...
Things have flattened out. At the close...
What this tells me is that while we have invested a lot of risk capital, our time value hasn't been paying off... yet. The last two weeks to The Witch will have to settle out the premium still riding. We are flat hedged intentionally. Miss Banks and Wace will return shortly. He weighed 16 pounds 4 ounces already! She has been a little delayed getting back understandably... she had an episiotomy so Lil' Wace wasn't a Bullethead... He has a Big Head...
It's an hour or so later. You can see it is a weekly battle... but will pickup. Stay tuned...Meanwhile, we still work on bztchin' boomers inc. in the healthcare realm.
Monday Feb 23, 2015: Evening: The settlements are all exercised now. Here is where we stand going into the March Quadruple Witching month.
We can live with that. February saved us after a pretty lackluster start to the year in a virtually sideways market and where we were still biased for at least half the growth experienced in QE world. The market wasn't convinced; It biased to all previous growth attributed to QE, so basically from inflation only. Looked good on Paper, but flat in real terms. Better than expected February earnings woke them up. Lower fuel prices will now come into play, freeing up income to other sectors. Scott Adams even weighed in on the market. ;)
For the record, our strategy is to be on the other side of everybody's trades. We have a lot less overhead than the brokerage.
Friday Feb 20, 2015: Expiration Day. Here is where it sits now as I already have put on the options for next month... There will be some exercised positions from this month to be settled yet after Monday afternoon close.
This year has been a battle with volatility post QE as volatility has jumped to an over-corrected state. We have adjusted for the new normal and rode it out, but going forward things will be more subdued until the banks realize that there is no way to beat us without beating themselves up even worse, or simply resorting to fraud and theft. We will see.
Thurs Evening, Feb 12, 2015: Another rough week with Russia and the Ukraine, smattered with Greek instability. The Greek electorate has leaned towards defaulting their bond debt, so they are committing fiscal suicide. The Euro community will QE it away dragging the whole mess down.
We have a week to go for Feb Expiry. Perhaps we can roll in advance if there is a volatility spike between now and then as there sometimes is, but better than forecast earnings for majors like AAPL could foretell a break out of the flat doldrums we have had since the beginning of the year.
VIX Expiry comes before normal monthly expiration this cycle. It will be at the next Tuesday Close.
Thurs Evening, Feb 5, 2015: Miss Banks is preggers, so I'll fill in... We really haven't had much for up days. The Bear sides of the hedges are getting crowded, so any up day moves our bottom line like it is on steroids. There will be a massive settlement in our favour in a couple weeks consequently I suppose, but until then it is nail biting time.
I cleared off a lot of the previous settled expiration holdings, but have billions more I could clean off the slate and up our liquidity with. I have ignored it as designed. We wanted to build it to minimize trades. We have blown only about $561 K in commissions so far this year which is on target that way.
I have been busy anyways with my biotech startup. A 1% reduction in chronic disease would have an economic benefit worth about $1 trillion, or $500 billion 2006 US Dollars. This has the ability to reduce chronic disease by way more than that, so understandably it deserves a lot more attention. We are still struggling to make a billion so far this year here.
Lil' Wace may still be born with a diamond encrusted platinum spoon in his mouth... We'll have to see in a couple weeks. We bagged a free $110 million from a reverse 10:1 split on a NASDAQ ETF position we put on last year, held the negative exercise, and it didn't show up until it was liquidated this year. That little bump helped and Wace won't have to get hand me downs.
Mon, Jan 26, 2015:We have been away for a while. Getting back, I see that we took a big hit at expiration, below S+P 2000, and have since recovered. It's about a half hour until the close.
This what it looked like the Monday after expiry a week ago... ugly. Time heals most wounds in hedge world.
We have rebounded over half a billion dollars from that ditch by rebalancing to the new high volatility reality. We did that by cashing out assignments on our options and rolling into February positions. We want to profit from the excessive theta that high volatility generates on options when it relaxes and/or the option on the underlying expires, be it in or out of the money. Like the heading says, the happiness has been questionable this year so far. Earnings season only exacerbates that with all the dividend bagging craziness. March ES sits at about 2049.
Fri Jan 9, 2015: There is One Week left to go in the fiscal month. At Lunchtime, the market is back down moderately with ES bobbling around 2040...
While showing positive numbers for the year, we still have a relatively bad fiscal month. This is due to the large drop at the end of the previous year during last Wednesday afternoon, New Year's Eve, as many funds took a large amount off the table. We ended down about $250 million in Blue Column 1. Today there were some moderately bad numbers, and there was a hostage crisis in Paris. VVIX is at 101.74 pointing to the Hedger's Nemesis, Increasing Volatility, as the culprit. So I reckon we are up only $200 million since New Year's Eve, an awful performance for us. 6:30 pm approaches... Along with Earnings Week next week... ES dropped to 2033.50
Thurs Jan 8, 2015: A rally appears to be underway. After overnight and then the "Up" opening, it rose for a solid hour...
During the morning and afternoon, it started to lose some steam affording us an opportunity to reinvest some cash to rebalance hedges, although we are weighted decidedly Bullish. So far this year, Volatility has returned to the Markets reaffirming our assertion that QE kept it artificially low, and enabled us to ride it like a rented mule. At 1 PM EST,
Looking above on the Blue Line, the numbers are Respectively P/L from Opening Positions, Daily Profit/Loss, and Buying Power Effect of Open Positions. After the Close at 8 PM,
We are back into the Green from Opening our positions after a decidedly bad month with two distinct dips. S+P Futures (ES) are presently in the 2053 range. There is a week left to go until Option Expiration this month. It is getting harder to make a buck in the hedge business as the market feels out this new Post QE reality, and the wheels fall off in the oil business.
Weds Jan 7, 2015: The Boss Stale Dated that last post! I have been on the mend for nearly a week!
We are still under water. It has been a Horrific Week! The S+P went into the 1900's! Now it is only 2016 ES Futures! We have made Zero Trades this year! The Boss tried to explain why I fell ill. He says RoundUp Weedkiller is in everything we eat now, and there is No Cure! Well, unless you believe that silly thing he is working on. He also fancies himself an Artiste of sorts... He contacted Mr. Brainwash with his latest Creation!
I have an idea! Let's use the Banks Phone! Banksy must be out there Somewhere!
It went to message... "Brother Dearest... It's me, Robin <3 xoxo as if you didn't KNOW! Teehehehe! Mom says pickup your CD's or they all go to the Thrift... and Call Me!" <flush!> That should get a response...
It is 20 minutes to go until the close. The day was wildly volatile, indicative of a final bottom possibly to this Awful Week. VVIX remains around 109. but has been steadily decreasing all day. ES mafe 2017.5 as of now. It made 2024 earlier. Let's wait for the Closing Bell.
SPX settled at about 2025.90. By 7:30 PM... ES 2021.50 , and...
Fri Jan 2 2014: Happy New Year. At 6:30 AM EST, it is The Boss, and here is the picture... New years Eve we lost about 100 million, but we got it back. There was a large selloff for tax purposes of hedge funds. Today and next week they will selectively buy it all back and then some.
I have been working over the break from medical school/engineering, and trying to heal what ails Miss Banks. I will have to invent a cure because one does not exist yet. Well, neither did this 380% hedge fund. Miss Banks thinks I have Lost my Marbles! Well, in honour of her, here is my temporary logo... comprised of MIT, UBC, and the soon to be Defunct MON logos...
After the opening, the options are kicking in.
But the selloff continued, while Volatility relaxed. Miss Banks stands vindicated with her prescience. I made her some Chicken Soup, with allegedly Organic Chicken... At 7:23 PM...
It is still moving though with our direct shorts after hours.
Weds Dec 31 2014: It is the last day of the year. It is The Boss here.... Miss Banks is sick as a dog from a fast food GMO binge with my sister and is still "Sittin' on tha Toilet!" The audio is atrocious coming out of there! It is 10:30 EST.
Perhaps she will understand my fascination with BioTech these days now. I have a cure for that one. (adjusts gas mask) No sulfur deficiency there yet though.... give her a couple more hours... lol. I was gonna dump her, but kinda feel sorry fo' da po' bztch now....
Let's look at how Monsanto (MON) is faring these days. It went from a July 7, 2010 low of 44.61 to 128.79 and now 121.15. There will be a short storm coming on demonstrably one of perhaps the most evil corporations to ever exist. After all, they hid PCB's, Dioxins, Several Superfund Sites, Agent Orange, and now RoundUp/GMO Ready Death. Miss Banks is just another puny death about to happen at their hands, but I take it as a Challenge now. I watched 6 friends die of brain cancer this year alone, and all traced to MON Products. I also have some secret information on their clandestine human toxicity testing from the 40's, 50's, 60's, and 70's. You will see.
This also the end of the Calendar Year. There will be a lot of Tax Adjusting going on to split liquidations over two Calendar Years and minimize Capital Gains. Indeed, I am headed out to do some myself.
Tues Dec 30, 2014: The bell opening, rung by Art Cashin to mark 50 Years service at the NYSE, is flat...
Somebody please tell the Boss that this is a stable career like Art Cashin has. Just because he cured cancer today doesn't mean that the next person falling off the turnip truck won't do the same thing tomorrow, and he will wind up in a barrel! Think of little Wace!!! Oh dear! And Wace just punted my Kidney! I guess it is handy to have somebody involved in Healthcare in the Family... but think of the long term ramifications!? Ow! Wace has Hyperactivity issues too. It's like he is trying to bust out like that Alien movie! <Frapppp!> Oh, Wace, cut that out! The little bugger is taking advantage of that extra helping of Beans I had last night...
Speaking of beans, now the S+P is jumping around like a mexican jumping bean, but we are still flat. Maybe I am hedged too well. We have seen that before like back in August where we stayed flat until Expiration, and we got a huge positive settlement as all the options expired worthless from being way overvalued from Volatility. We were short all of those, and the greeks went to zero or 1 (delta), so we walked away with an enormous Windfall. Free Money! After showing the Boss, he put me in charge of the account. See "Not Quite Expired Yet!!!" after we went from 600 million to over ten times that year to date. I am a little "Hedge Hog." Teeehehehe!
It is 2 hours after the Close, so the number isn't right. I went town with the Boss' Sister, and we talked about how silly the Boss was about all this multibillion Pharmacrap. She works for Health Canada, or as we all know it, Monsanto. We ate buckets of geneticall modified weed free delicacies, and talked about all the people we knew who died young this week. Better them than us! Teeehehehe!
It looks like things are flat still. Oh well, they can pay me later. Options expire in 17 days, and then they all go to zero or Delta 1. They'll rue the day. xoxo <3 R.
Mon Dec 29, 2014: It was a rough Open after a wild Sunday Night on Futures, but it is at 2087 right now...
VIX climbed back over 16 at the open but subsided to 15.36 by 10:15 AM. I found out what The Boss has been busy doing. He is trying to get his Biotechnical Pharmaceutical startup off the ground, but it has been a tough slog. You cannot Crowd Source medical pursuits. He claims it is an instant Arthritis Cure. Really! Celebrex that doesn't work alone is $1 billion a quarter! I protested that that is only revenues but he claims THAT is why My Division is puny potatos comparatively! :( I am $1.5 B a quarter, cold hard cash, and damn good steamy comfy sex, but he thinks he has Celebrex clobbered! Plus it is being replaced by those risky biologic treatments daily! His thing has NO side effects! <sob!> I fret that He is going to dump me!!!
It was flatter than piss on a plate all day. Santa Claus and his Rally must be whacked out on Triptophane from a Turkey Overdose.
I want in on that pharmaceutical IPO. Am I an insider? xoxo <3 R.
Fri Dec 26. 2014: The Open
Later at Lunch...
Light volume I guess. Sony released and showed The Interview. Reviews are that it sucked, but nothing like plumping up that Christmas Turkey with a little free publicity. I can see Kim Jong Un's beef with the thing now... EVERYBody can! It was an awful movie!! Denizens sat through it as a patriotic duty, else they would have all left the steaming pile alone early. Many were left thinking God Bless America... Sony can go to Hell!
Meanwhile Obama carded 73! It was the other 9 holes where the wheels fell off; that score remains a State secret. The Secret Service detail would only bust out laughing when queried if the CiC had indeed broken 200!!! Rumour has it the GiC looked pooped after reportedly digging a divot from 10 to 18. He couldn't even lift a Pen, and He let the storied Phone go to Message. He drove Choom Force #1 straight into the Clubhouse and left in a huff. Owwch! Here is the Closing Bell... it will settle more though...
I used available dollars all day patching and balancing our hedges using options. After Hours they do not move after the Closing and Opening Bells. Thusly, we get strange balances over night, holidays, and the weekend versus direct held positions. All in a day's work for the astute hedger I suppose. ES Futures closed a half hour ago, and here is what we have.
There was a large clawback after 9 PM EST, but again options are closed, so we will get it back Monday. See you then! xoxo <3 R.
Weds Dec 24, 2014: It is a shortened trading day where crude oil is all the buzz; How low can it go as if that is a bad thing. Futures show $55 +/- a buck like they have so far this week. The settlement price is hard on the corporate planners though. Noting the date, the reindeer don't give a rat's patootie.
I hope you have a Merry Christmas. We are having Whirled Peas for supper. My Favorite!!! xoxo <3 R.
Tues Dec 23, 2014: Well it started down a bit...
The Community Riot Organizer In Chief got another cop kill notch last night in Florida while at the 19th Hole in Hawaii. Hope and Change is kicking ass with Pen and Phone halfway round the world. Big Bird DeBlasio is about to check into psych. Republican brats all over are making up Bumper Stickers "Who d'ya wanna kill? When?" with bright Hammer and Sickle motif to slap on their Union Teacher's bumpers all night long before phoning the cops on them. Splendid! I guess they have learned their lessons well how to Organize against authority from the Top.
At 11 AM with the AWOL Commander peeling Pineapples, home sales numbers suck. We liquidated a bunch of extra positions to get back towards sanity...
We got an adjustment for a reverse 10:1 split on one underlying security, JNUG, that we had shorted for ages and held. Sony clarifies that "The Interview" release is just delayed. They will get tight with The Cops to release it in a couple months instead. Of course in the last week liberals like those in Hollywood have got in tighter than ever with police
Low oil prices are fueling a boom. Finally some good news. Everything was negative on the news channels. I guess they are trying to ruin Christmas. Well, we simply won't let them! We are hedged in as best as we can for now. Three weeks and change to expiration. The Short Selling Grinch News Machine will fail we surmise. Do we care if it's one nation under godawful? Why is it a concern all of a sudden? I can have a smashing New Years where we can all defenestrate Boxing Week Special TV's from the Penthouse! Smashing! Literally! Look out below!
Sony has now decided to release the Interview anyways. A Liberal gutsy calculus; Ripping face off of a Mentally unstable nuclear armed dictator OR Sit here and face the Music from the Cops and the Ha><0rs? Wait a sec... Those are ALL about equally bad and now they all happen! Math wasn't their strong suit. Sony feels it hasn't got much left to live for anyways.
By 9 PM...
...as we Brace for a Jolly Sony Christmas.
Mon Dec 22, 2014: The last Quad witch of the year is behind us and the settlement is today. An early snapshot at 7 AM on Wall Street looked like this, but of course we have many option positions that will light up in 2.5 hours...
The real question is will we have a mixed market now that inflationary monetary policy is over. The Fed printed Bull Market is now gone. We have President Ebola ignoring the 1,400 cases the CDC is hiding from people, and golfing in Hawaii to make things look legit. Community Riot Organizers have NYPD Blood on their hands they can simply smear off onto the White House carpet. China has bravely taken on the greased turd that is Russia by backstopping the Ruble. Let's see how that goes...
Of course there is that silly story about the high school boy who gained $72 million trading securities. In the hedge world, we know this happens all the time, but he lied and the magazine reporting was left with egg on their face. All the ones asking me for interviews never make it past the SEC. We have an agreement; I don't tell how, especially to a reporter, and they leave me alone! <3 Oddly, a child with excruciating leverage would not pass that muster, but the reporting standards of New Yorker are that lax.
They also thump the tub for President Ebola I suppose, ignoring the fact that he was born out back of a whore house in Hawaii before it was a state. Apparently, American Voters are that stupid say President Ebola's Top Advisor(s) running the country. It will be just like some random idiot kiddie porn bastard child grew up to be President or something. This will be our Arbitration Opportunity going forward, elevating time value to excruciating levels as the legendary dumbasses slowly find out what we have known all along, the cranial back package of disbelief constipation relieves in their collective drawers, and our bank accounts, all at once. What do you think the chances are that the full movie of Ebola's Conception comes out before he leaves office? Does that look like a photographer's drop curtain being used as a dress here in 1953, 61 years ago as Ebola really looks forward to his 61st birthday? She appears to like hiding his stretch marks in all the reams of other newer pictures. At the Open,
I'm sorry, but I have been busy taking advantage of the morning shakeup putting on hedges I haven't used for months to make it interesting. It is about a quarter past 10 AM EST, and I hedged all our excess cash. Now I can celebrate Christmas unless we get more when the other exercised options get put to us as the day progresses. As we have seen in the past, that sometimes works out to be a substantial sum.
Back to the Big Picture. Now that Republicans ought to know the standard blackmail fare the Democrats had on Candidate Ebola, will they show they have a pair, or will it be the usual mono gonad-ed response? I am a Libertarian but have known since before he ran when I was a Girl Guide in high school, and it was all the rage of rumours we bandied about at sleep overs. "Don't have sex in movies before you are 12 or you could have a Presidential Bastard, be shacked up with some exchange student from Kenya in a botched coverup, and be killed by the CIA!" Every British girl knew that... At Lunch, the weight of problems turns the day into a grind.
The Riot Organizer In Chief has put his "Who do we wanna Kill?... When do we wanna kill 'em?" bullhorn down to putt. Everything is all Candy Canes and Sugarplums now in serene bullet proof limo processions. The Free Obama Phone and golf Cart hawkers have become oddly silent as crude languishes in the 50's, and President Ebola shatters Bush's Worst Approval Ratings. The Faithful, still blissfully ignorant, blame Bush for not setting it lower. Guffaw!!! Not a creature is stirring... Not even a DemocRAT! And it is another 3 days before that rotund sled pilot loads up with coal to bomb the lot of the bastards!
Rush Limbaugh was snuggled... Assured in his bed... He'd told you a Reindeer'd, Crap on Barack's Head!!! Sarah was up near Wasilla, Alaska... The Cop Killer In Chief was a Five Star Disasta'! "Barack is not a smart fella', ya know... So again, all'a ya dumbasses, 'I told you so!'" DemocRATs feverishly hung nooses all over... A huge Race Baiting Hoax would just let them Start Over!
I napped. I had other thimgs to do. It closed and I snapped it at 9 Eastern...
No comments:
Post a Comment