It is Friday March 7th, 2014 after hours. I haven't said anything lately but what a week.
Monday was a huge 1865-1831 point S&P decline from the Friday High over worries about the Ukrainian Crisis. It looked like Russia was annexing the Crimean Peninsula.
Then Tuesday, it rallied back to 1870 levels. The weird thing was that the news that they were withdrawing was all made up by Putin. The reality on the ground had not changed at all, and in fact, all that was changing was the story. All Crimean government buildings were still occupied by the Russians.
Wednesday Thursday the market wobbled around and floated higher as people kind of realized that the news was a ruse.
Friday the Non Farm Payroll number was good, but Unemployment was up a little to 6.7% from 6.6. After setting a new all time high at 1883.52 after the open, then it slowly started to give up the gains of the day. The real tell was Volatility of the week. Plot XIV over the week and it showed the slow realization that the Russkies were pulling the wool over everybody's eyes.
So what does that mean going forward? Can people be that dumb that they believe the Russians will take back the best part of Ukraine without firing a shot while thumbing their nose at International Law? Apparently, yes.
Does that mean the S&P is hugely overvalued since Monday? Yes. Does it mean that it will correct itself? Not Necessarily. That is because the market is always right, especially when it is wrong. The Market is not only like the Boss, it is Boss.
Therefore, look for a nasty correction to be blamed on anything but the Ukrainian Crisis, and don't question all those lumps under the rug. lol
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