Friday 28 February 2014

Sunday AM Update: Ukrainian Troubles

Well here it is in a nutshell. In particular, Crimea is at the center of the current focus. The S&P finally broke 1850 resistance, soared to 1868, then gave it all back before rebounding and finishing at 1856.45 after which the response to the Crimean situation became clearer. Presidential speech, no red line across the freeway out of the Trampled Red Paint inventory, whatEVER! Futures are at 1860.75 as of this writing Friday after close.

So it is the weekend now, new month, and into March we go. A lot can happen before futures come back on stream Sunday evening at 6 PM Eastern. It looks like they (Russia) are trying to protect their naval interests in the Black Sea, much to the chagrin of the Interim Ukrainian Government that sent Russia packin'... again. GC Gold Futures sit at 1328.6. Not a real flight trade there like it used to be whenever geopolitical risk ratcheted up. VIX dropped back to 14 after being up as high as 14.79 with VX March Futures climbing to 15.70 an hour before close.

So there you have it. Russia up to its old tricks with the Ukraine, some even say a new Cold War, and the market goes berserk.

Annualized GDP came in at 2.4 on a 2.5 expectation to start out but then personal consumption numbers were up to fuel the rip. One geopolitical shock took most of it back... for now. The Update: Ah yes, now it looks like Crimea is just the camel's nose under the tent as More Troops are going for the whole enchilada... The entire country of Ukraine. Look for the S+P to continue a down slide Monday morning as Russian troop carriers with little dots of Red Line on the tires deploy to "rescue" Yanukovic's skidded government.

There will likely be "Appease" in our time on the way to a good old World War in East Europe, but Democrats to the rescue again for their number one depression busting industry: War. Former UN Ambassador John Bolton saw it coming and said they never should have had Russia in the G8 with Putin at the helm. Ironically, this is in the neighborhood of Yalta where they gave away half of Europe for half a century the last time they cut a deal there.

Look for them to campaign on the slogan, "He kept us out of The War," exactly like they have before all the bloodiest conflicts in History they got into. It worked when they spun off of the KKK, and it has worked ever since.

Sunday Update: Now they are getting Tuff... They, along with France, are not going to attend the Planning sessions for the G8 meeting in Sochi in June. Russia continues to mobilize into the Crimean peninsula and Eastern Ukraine unabated, but now with the addition of a full Wah-mbulance Division. Morningstar has a financial take on it.

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