Tuesday 25 February 2014

Where do we go now?

Not much is making sense these days. TSLA is trading at a wild P/E ratio. Sure they sell battery cars, but that doesn't answer the age old problem of that. Engineers would say once you have an electron, you want to use it, and not store it. There are losses in transmission and storage so you are fighting a losing battle. That has not gone away, but all the common sense has.

Governments always come up with some kind of New Deal right before really bad wars. Look at Kiev and Caracas. Both places are in chaos and financial trouble. Afghanistan and Iraq are both reverting to their old states with Egypt and Syria messed up in the middle this time. Gee, I can't see how that would screw up.

The aforementioned pundits are aware that something is up, or about to boil over, but they can't put their finger on it. Richard Maybury might be able to put some objectivity to it, but that isn't really great news. So where does one go now?

I guess we have to read the last link again about "objectivity," even though Richard himself says he hasn't got all the answers. At least we have some sort of forward vision in a world of back-testing, and where everybody seems to be plotting their way through a virtual minefield.

The markets opened Wednesday AM with a sell-off with Mortgage applications down 8.5% until New Home Sales came in up 9.6%. Talk about a whipsaw. Just how does one play that? If that is the baseline, it is pretty rough sailing with gale force winds whipping up the chop. Volatility is coming back strong with the Fed Taper out of providing a soft landing, and the markets reverting to news driven environment.

Colorado is having a $1B per year Pot Rush. There is no mention on the social costs of that yet. Make no mistake, it is not all good. Simply look at side effects of marijuana use and it is definitely a ticking time bomb there. Take a well armed populace of depressed and/or stressed people... Give 'em a phattie, and Voila! Of course the marijuana lobby will do everything they can to keep the lid on that until it explodes in their face. Then what?

Well, is the Munchie Trade crowded yet? Ya ride that Tiger, it's going to get hungry.

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