Tuesday 28 January 2014

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reseve -

Presently the Federal Reserve is having their monthly meeting. These meetings garner garner a lot of interest these days for several reasons, but mostly because people want to know how they will adjust the Forward Guidance, or unprecedented injection of liquidity to the mortgage backed security (MBS) buyback and bond buying programs they initiated with Quantitative Easing.

It is also Ben Bernanke's last such meeting as Chairman of The Federal Reserve (System.) The stock market has had a love-hate affair with Ben over his two terms at the helm as the Dovish (Easy Monetary Policy) Chairman, moderating the various Doves and Hawks on the Federal Reserve Board. Hawks want to get the Fed back in the business of moderating the money supply by raising interest rates, and letting the market take care of bad mortgage backed securities.

OK, so call me Captain Obvious, but just walk up to anybody and try to explain this. They generally won't know what you are talking about. A lot of the ones that think they do advocate abolishing the Fed, which is basically like the passengers voting to turn off the airplane engines over the Pacific Ocean. Alex Jones and a zillion other Conspiracy Theory websites told them it was a good thing. If you are losing the game, cut down the scoreboard. Then they can Occupy a world of total chaos without any money for Anybody. I hazard a guess they have thought this through. Their nirvana has no guns either. Those pesky remaining guns will be the New fungible proxy of goods and services to lighten their "Ronulan" load of copper, silver, and gold.

So it is a safe bet that they will eliminate themselves and we will be right back to square one waiting on the monthly Fed Meeting Rate decision, with a later Press conference, at 2 PM EST Wednesday. At that time we will also see if Easing will continue to be Tapered off with Treasury and MBS buybacks. Durable goods purchases were bad, but bad is good in this reverse world where anything bad means more easing in the money supply. And it is more inflationary pressure pouring another few buckets of water intothe already waterlogged slow boat to retirement.

In this shell game, markets have a faster reaction than you can see on the street. They are already "baking it in" even before the meeting as they see the open poker hand the Fed has, but not the hole cards. For that we have to wait, then read 'em and weep. Ben has already telegraphed his strategy with the "Whatever it takes" monetary policy intentions. This is akin to ensuring the engines of our airplane have enough fuel. Hopefully someone installs another engine before the sheer weight of the fuel starts our downward trajectory to the Ocean. Let's just hope a Scully protege is at the controls, but then what? Stay tuned...

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