Sunday 12 January 2014

"Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results"

There is a good reason for that boilerplate on all that Financial Information. Imagine that you are forced to drive a cube van containing all of your meager possessions in reverse along a narrow mountain trail. You can't see in reverse because both mirrors have been taken off. You have a clear view of only the poorly defined centerline of the road. You can't see the edges. Welcome to the world of Charts!

Most charts are wrong. First, most don't even tell you the most basic information. If they did, they would have two lines; One for the ASK and one for the BID. And those ones are a rare animal indeed. Interactive Brokers TWS has that option, but you must go looking for it, and then demand it. In Thinkorswim, you can have one or the other, but not both unless you program it yourself using ThinkPipes. My first question to any wannabe investor would be, "How do you propose to chart the Bid and the Offer?"

So we must be aware of the spread to start. They sure aren't going to tell you right out. In fact, it looks like they intentionally keep it hidden. What a bunch of slippery weasels, huh? What are they trying to hide with this? We get it that there is a cost of doing business, but why do they not want us to know this, and find out the hard way?

They try to hide as much useful information as they can. Volatility. Velocity. Liquidity. Dollar Weighted Put Call Index. Everything that affects the price and availability that they can. Then they freely give you enough information to hang yourself with, and they even charge for it. No wonder they need a disclaimer in this scenario.

Then there are the Commissions. Whether you win or lose, you still have to pay the commission on the trade on top of the spread. There are lots of ways to keep commissions low, but the simplest is to trade less. They even penalize you for having the nerve to trade less than their minimum amounts. It is obvious that these guys are Sharks.

Let's say we have a gun held to our heads, and we have to trade or die! The deck is stacked against us, but is there any way to succeed? Let's be a Pilot Fish! They seem to at least survive is some pretty hostile waters. We'll have to snack on the leftovers from the shark to sooth it, and groom it to keep it happy to avoid being invited over for dinner.... As the main course! It looks like we are not alone either. Let's go to "School!"

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